• The Phillies are -145 favorites vs the Marlins
• Phillies vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Phillies / Marlins TV Channel: MATV | NSPA

The Philadelphia Phillies (-145) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+120) on May 3, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 pm in Miami, FL.

This season, the Phillies are 13-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 16-17 ATS.

Phillies vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Phillies starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 2-3, 5.51 ERA
• Marlins starting pitcher: Chris Paddack 0-4, 5.97 ERA

Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 58.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Phillies vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

• Alec Bohm has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.55 Units / 28% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+12.65 Units / 59% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.70 Units / 31% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+9.00 Units / 129% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Esteury Ruiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+17.00 Units / 283% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+14.15 Units / 31% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.00 Units / 45% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Walks Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+9.50 Units / 63% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 45 games (+13.00 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+7.05 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.15 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 away games (+2.70 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.70 Units / 18% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 games (+12.65 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+9.95 Units / 70% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+8.85 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games (+8.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.90 Units / 46% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 6-27 against the Run Line (-24.2 Units / -62.61% ROI).

• 13-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.45 Units / -26.55% ROI
• 16-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.45 Units / -1.23% ROI
• 15-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.35 Units / -6.51% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 16-17 against the Run Line (-2.2 Units / -5.23% ROI).

• 16-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.15 Units / 2.84% ROI
• 19-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.6 Units / 15.3% ROI
• 12-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.8 Units / -24.44% ROI

Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Phillies are 19-64 (.229) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .128.

The Phillies are just 6-13 (.316) after a loss this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .472.

The Phillies are just 0-9 (.000) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Phillies are 9-1 (.900) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .777.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Marlins are 15-2 (.882) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .728.

The Marlins are just 1-15 (.062) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .223.

The Marlins are just 12-3 (.800) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .888.

The Marlins are 11-81 (.120) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .094.

Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends

Phillies hitters have an OPS of just .596 (413 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Phillies are batting just .190 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB.

The Phillies are batting just .147 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .222 (658 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters are slugging just .408 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have put 40% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2025 season — tied for highest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have put 41% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have 157 extra-base hits out of 584 total hits (just 27%) with two-strikes since the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the 2025 season — best in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .305 against Phillies pitchers this season — highest in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 14 double plays in 291 opportunities (5%) this season — lowest in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.16 (125.2 IP) on the road this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 2.85 (164.0 IP) at home this season — 4th best in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .203 against Marlins pitchers with runners on base this season — 3rd best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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