• The Phillies are -120 favorites vs the Marlins
• Phillies vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
• Phillies / Marlins TV Channel: MATV | NSPA

The Philadelphia Phillies (-120) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+100) on May 4, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 pm in Miami, FL.

This season, the Phillies are 14-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 16-18 ATS.

Phillies vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 1-3, 6.10 ERA
• Marlins starting pitcher: Janson Junk 2-2, 3.03 ERA

Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Monday‘s MLB game with 52.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Phillies vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

• Bryson Stott has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+14.50 Units / 362% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.85 Units / 22% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+10.65 Units / 53% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Walks Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+10.65 Units / 42% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+7.90 Units / 20% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Esteury Ruiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+28.00 Units / 400% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+14.15 Units / 31% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.00 Units / 44% ROI)
• Liam Hicks has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.15 Units / 34% ROI)
• Graham Pauley has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.90 Units / 30% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games (+10.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 away games (+6.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.15 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.70 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.70 Units / 25% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 50 games (+10.65 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+8.95 Units / 58% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+8.85 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games (+8.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.50 Units / 33% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 7-27 against the Run Line (-23 Units / -58.01% ROI).

• 14-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.45 Units / -23.71% ROI
• 17-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.55 Units / 1.46% ROI
• 15-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.45 Units / -9.27% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 16-18 against the Run Line (-3.6 Units / -8.29% ROI).

• 16-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 0.36% ROI
• 20-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.6 Units / 17.51% ROI
• 12-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.9 Units / -26.68% ROI

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Phillies are 19-64 (.229) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .128.

The Phillies are just 14-19 (.424) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.

The Phillies are just 0-9 (.000) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .298.

The Phillies are just 4-19 (.174) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Marlins are 15-2 (.882) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .724.

The Marlins are just 1-16 (.059) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .221.

The Marlins are just 12-3 (.800) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .889.

The Marlins were just 45-10 (.818) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .899.

Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends

The Phillies are batting just .191 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .296 (912 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

Phillies hitters are slugging just .313 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Phillies are just 1-12 (.077) against the run line (-86.2% ROI) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters are slugging just .404 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have put 40% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2025 season — highest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have struck out in 38% of their PA’s against LHP over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have struck out in just 21% of their PA’s against LHP since the 2025 season — tied for 5th best in MLB.

Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have walked 7% of batters since the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have walked 8% of batters this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 3.07 (173.0 IP) at home this season — 5th best in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have 65 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 2nd most in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.00 (828.0 IP) on the road since the 2025 season — 4th highest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .201 against Marlins pitchers with runners on base this season — 3rd best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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