Phillies vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 15

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 15, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Phillies (80-62) are -135 favorites vs the Marlins (58-85)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Noah Syndergaard (9-9), 4.09 ERA
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (8-10), 4.04 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSFL

The Philadelphia Phillies (-135) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+110) on Thursday, September 15, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Phillies vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 79-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 66-75 ATS.

Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 +125O 7.5 -105-135
Marlins +1.5 -155U 7.5 -115+110

Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the will win Thursday‘s matchup with confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 58 away games (+16.25 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 54 away games (+15.25 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 50 away games (+14.50 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 59 games (+12.15 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Jean Segura has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 27 away games (+11.20 Units / 20% ROI)

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+10.50 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+9.65 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games at home (+8.45 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.05 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+7.90 Units / 52% ROI)

Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Charles Leblanc 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Garrett Cooper 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
JJ Bleday 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Jacob Stallings 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Jon Berti 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000

Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Charles Leblanc 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Garrett Cooper 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
JJ Bleday 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Jacob Stallings 0.5 -160 0.5 +110
Jon Berti 0.5 -275 0.5 +180

Marlins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Charles Leblanc 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Garrett Cooper 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
JJ Bleday 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Jacob Stallings 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Jon Berti 0.5 +270 0.5 -450

Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Pablo Lopez 4.5 -155 4.5 +110
Noah Syndergaard 3.5 -175 3.5 +120
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 80 of their last 137 games (+19.85 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 35 away games (+5.90 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.70 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.30 Units / 79% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.20 Units / 2% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 40 of their last 67 games (+11.65 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.25 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.55 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games (+0.80 Units / 6% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 72-67 against the Run Line (+2.7 Units / 1.59% ROI).

  • 79-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.55 Units / 3.19% ROI
  • 70-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.25 Units / -0.16% ROI
  • 64-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.4 Units / -8.06% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 66-75 against the Run Line (-21.1 Units / -11.26% ROI).

  • 58-83 when betting on the Moneyline for -28.4 Units / -17.13% ROI
  • 62-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.1 Units / -11.6% ROI
  • 73-62 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.1 Units / 3.29% ROI

Noah Syndergaard has allowed 30 stolen bases this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Noah Syndergaard has had second base stolen on him 25 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Noah Syndergaard has had third base stolen on him 5 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Noah Syndergaard has allowed a slugging percentage of .867 (26 Total Bases / 30 ABs) in late innings this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: .398 — first Percentile.

Pablo López: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 31% of the time (196/640) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 39% (94/241) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 39% of the time (192/491) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 40% of Pablo Lopez’s pitches (21/53) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Phillies are 11-47 (.190) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are 14-47 (.230) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .117.

The Phillies are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 44-31 (.587) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .526.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Marlins are just 8-12 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Marlins are just 28-43 (.394) at home this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.

The Marlins are just 8-34 (.190) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.

The Marlins are just 57-69 (.452) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.

The Phillies are batting .269 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .781 (1,583 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .717.

Phillies hitters are slugging .486 over the last 14 days (11 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .765 (2,746 PA’s) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

Marlins hitters have 805 strikeouts in 2,909 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .268 (1,213 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .628 (2,909 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .283 (2,909 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 173 of 2,686 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have allowed a run just 23% of the time after an opposing score this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Marlins have won just 18% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Marlins vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Core, Day-to-Day
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): Hand, Day-to-Day
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Zachary Wheeler (Phillies): Forearm, D15
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.