- The Mets (73-40) are -200 favorites vs the Phillies (63-49)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (8-8), 3.17 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Jacob deGrom (1-0), 2.53 ERA
- Watch the game on WPIX
The Philadelphia Phillies (+165) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-200) on Saturday, August 13, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Phillies vs Mets Over/Under is 6 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 63-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 63-50 ATS.
Phillies vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -140 | O 6 +100 | +165 |
| Mets | -1.5 +115 | U 6 -120 | -200 |
Phillies vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s matchup with 55.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 45 away games (+16.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 29 games (+12.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 38 games (+11.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 30 games (+11.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 43 away games (+10.60 Units / 22% ROI)
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 31 games (+18.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 37 games at home (+13.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+13.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 30 games (+12.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+11.95 Units / 31% ROI)
Mets vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| James McCann | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Luis Guillorme | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
Mets vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| James McCann | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
| Luis Guillorme | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
Mets vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| James McCann | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Luis Guillorme | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
Mets vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 -105 |
| Jacob deGrom | 9.5 +115 | 9.5 -160 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 62 games (+19.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 61 games (+13.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 61 of their last 107 games (+12.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 away games (+8.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.20 Units / 38% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 51 games at home (+23.77 Units / 39% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 113 games (+19.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 63 of their last 113 games (+15.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 51 games at home (+13.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 75 games (+9.95 Units / 12% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 59-53 against the Run Line (+6.1 Units / 4.5% ROI).
- 63-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.55 Units / 4.23% ROI
- 55-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.8 Units / -0.65% ROI
- 51-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.2 Units / -7.46% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 63-50 against the Run Line (+15.7 Units / 11.44% ROI).
- 73-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +19.3 Units / 11.18% ROI
- 58-48 when betting on the total runs Over for +5 Units / 4% ROI
- 48-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.3 Units / -12.36% ROI
Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .121 (7-for-58) against Aaron Nola on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .265 — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 7.8 (157/20) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.4 — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a strike rate of 70% (749/1,067) against right-handed batters this season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has walked 3 of 99 batters (3%) with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Jacob deGrom: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jacob deGrom has a strikeout rate of 50% (18 SO in 36 PAs) this month (2 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Jacob deGrom has allowed an OBP of just .194 (628 PA’s) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 166 total IP; League Avg: .304 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 42% (576/1,379) against Jacob deGrom since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 166 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 46% (38/82) against Jacob deGrom this month (2 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Phillies are 13-37 (.260) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Phillies are 11-37 (.229) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Phillies are just 4-10 (.286) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 31-23 (.574) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .472.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Mets are 63-3 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Mets are 54-5 (.915) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Mets are 35-21 (.625) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .472.
The Mets are 62-16 (.795) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of 1.091 (56 PA’s) against LHP this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .686.
The Phillies are batting .340 against LHP this month (5 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .232.
Phillies hitters are slugging .680 against LHP this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .386.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .411 (56 PA’s) against LHP this month (5 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .300.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting .257 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .178.
Mets hitters are slugging .545 on the road over the last 14 days (5 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .384.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 62% on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .335 (2,954 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 154 of 2,422 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .258 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .219.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have walked 63 of 1,011 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Eduardo Escobar (Mets): Side, Day-to-Day
- Jeff McNeil (Mets): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Kyle Schwarber (Phillies): Calf, Day-to-Day
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
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