Phillies vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 14

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 14, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Mets (74-40) are + favorites vs the Phillies (63-50)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler (11-5), 2.62 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: Christopher Bassitt (9-7), 3.39 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Philadelphia Phillies (+) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (+) on Sunday, August 14, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Phillies vs Mets Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 63-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 63-51 ATS.

Phillies vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies+1.5 -190O 7 +100+
Mets -1.5 +155U 7 -120+

Phillies vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s matchup with 68.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 46 away games (+14.95 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 29 games (+12.05 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 38 games (+11.55 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.35 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+10.25 Units / 22% ROI)

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 32 games (+16.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 26 games at home (+13.65 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 38 games at home (+12.15 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+12.00 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 31 games (+11.95 Units / 34% ROI)

Mets vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
James McCann 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000

Mets vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Francisco Lindor 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
James McCann 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Jeff McNeil 0.5 -200 0.5 +140

Mets vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
James McCann 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +190 0.5 -275

Mets vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Chris Bassitt 5.5 -130 5.5 -110
Zack Wheeler 5.5 -105 5.5 -125
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 63 games (+18.65 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 62 games (+14.50 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 61 of their last 108 games (+11.65 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 26 away games (+9.35 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.20 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 52 games at home (+24.77 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 74 of their last 114 games (+20.30 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 63 of their last 114 games (+14.70 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 52 games at home (+14.00 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 76 games (+8.85 Units / 11% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 60-53 against the Run Line (+7.1 Units / 5.19% ROI).

  • 63-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.55 Units / 3.56% ROI
  • 55-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.9 Units / -1.53% ROI
  • 52-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.2 Units / -6.59% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 63-51 against the Run Line (+14.7 Units / 10.63% ROI).

  • 74-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +20.3 Units / 11.6% ROI
  • 58-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.9 Units / 3.09% ROI
  • 49-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.3 Units / -11.45% ROI

Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (386/905) when behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 97th Percentile.

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.5 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (168 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: 80.3

Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (1,558/3,539) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 79.4 MPH on inside pitches since the start of 2020 (521 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 166 total IP; League Avg: 85.4

Christopher Bassitt: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 53% (28/53) against Chris Bassitt on elevated fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (61/360) against Chris Bassitt this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Chris Bassitt has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 85.1 MPH (357 batted balls) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 88.5 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 14% (3/22) against Chris Bassitt against right-handed batters — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 40% — 98th Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Phillies are 11-38 (.224) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .088.

The Phillies are 13-38 (.255) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Phillies are just 4-10 (.286) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 48-2 (.960) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .912.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Mets are 35-21 (.625) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .472.

The Mets are 25-13 (.658) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mets are 26-5 (.839) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .710.

The Mets are 64-5 (.928) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Phillies are batting .340 against LHP this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .333 (1,197 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .771 (1,197 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of 1.091 (56 PA’s) against LHP this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .692.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .269 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .220.

The Mets are batting .194 with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .170.

The Mets are batting .174 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .158.

The Mets have scored first in 71% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have allowed a run just 22% of the time after an opposing score this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 52% with two-strikes this month (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 41%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Mets vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Guillorme (Mets): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
  • Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Schwarber (Phillies): Calf, Day-to-Day
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.