- The Mets are -135 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga
- Watch the game on TBS
The Philadelphia Phillies (+115) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-135) on Tuesday, May 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Phillies vs Mets Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 25-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 19-35 ATS.
Phillies vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -175 | O 8.5 -105 | +115 |
| Mets | -1.5 +145 | U 8.5 -115 | -135 |
Phillies vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 62.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 37 games (+13.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 45 games (+13.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+12.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 25 of his last 36 games (+12.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 26 of his last 37 games (+11.95 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.35 Units / 52% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.35 Units / 51% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+10.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+8.15 Units / 41% ROI)
Mets vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Mets vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Mets vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
| Kodai Senga | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -160 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 52 games (+7.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 away games (+4.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 36 games (+4.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 14% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.95 Units / 37% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 21-32 against the Run Line (-17.4 Units / -25.16% ROI).
- 25-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.75 Units / -14.81% ROI
- 23-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.3 Units / -9.15% ROI
- 26-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.8 Units / 1.36% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 19-35 against the Run Line (-19.65 Units / -28.94% ROI).
- 27-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.85 Units / -16.96% ROI
- 26-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.2 Units / -6.98% ROI
- 27-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.3 Units / -2.22% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 64% (108/170) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 85 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (284/510) against Ranger Suarez since last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 85 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has an average spin rate of 1892.5 RPM on fastballs since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: 2226.8 — second Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has an average spin rate of 1906.4 RPM on fastballs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 85 total IP; League Avg: 2234.0 — second Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kodai Senga has walked 10 of 49 batters (20%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Kodai Senga has a strike rate of just 57% (150/263) in two strike counts this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Kodai Senga has walked 19 of 135 batters (14%) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — tied for 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 8% — fifth Percentile.
Kodai Senga has allowed three-ball counts to 29% of batters they faced (62/213 PA’s) this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 20% — fourth Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Phillies are just 7-15 (.318) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are just 2-17 (.105) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Phillies are 15-14 (.517) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
The Phillies are just 12-15 (.444) after a loss this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .492.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Mets are just 0-24 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .097.
The Mets are 108-6 (.947) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .878.
The Mets are 37-23 (.617) after a home win since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .539.
The Mets are 40-19 (.678) after a loss as favorites since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .592.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .291 (650 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.
27% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .337 (1,359 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting .261 on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .335 (5,686 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Mets hitters have chased just 17% pitches with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mets hitters have just 271 strikeouts in 1,392 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 20 double plays in 357 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Phillies have won just 7% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 127 of 1,894 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 65% of their games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 67% of their games on the road this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Mets vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D15
- James Yacabonis (Mets): Quad, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D60
- Omar Narváez (Mets): Calf, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D60
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10
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