- The Phillies are -115 favorites vs the Mets
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
- Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Philadelphia Phillies (-115) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-105) on Wednesday, May 31, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Phillies vs Mets Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 25-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 20-35 ATS.
Phillies vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +140 | O 9 -115 | -115 |
| Mets | +1.5 -165 | U 9 -105 | -105 |
Phillies vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 53.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 38 games (+14.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 26 of his last 37 games (+13.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 27 of his last 38 games (+12.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 40 games (+12.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+12.75 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.35 Units / 52% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.35 Units / 51% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+9.15 Units / 44% ROI)
Mets vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Mets vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Mets vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -300 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -140 |
| Aaron Nola | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games (+8.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 37 games (+5.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.25 Units / 4% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+4.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.05 Units / 15% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 21-33 against the Run Line (-19 Units / -26.86% ROI).
- 25-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.75 Units / -15.96% ROI
- 23-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.4 Units / -10.84% ROI
- 27-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.8 Units / 3.01% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 20-35 against the Run Line (-18.25 Units / -26.49% ROI).
- 28-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.85 Units / -15.46% ROI
- 26-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.3 Units / -8.65% ROI
- 28-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.3 Units / -0.5% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola allowed a slugging percentage of 1.067 (16 Total Bases / 15 ABs) against right-handed batters — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .397 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .136 (3-for-22) against Aaron Nola on low fastballs this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .252 — 96th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a strikeout rate of just 17% (8 SO in 47 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — tied for 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 15th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed at least one HR in each of his last seven games dating back to April 21st — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .486 (53-for-109) against Carlos Carrasco when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: .340 — first Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .890 (97 Total Bases / 109 ABs) when behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: .594 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .388 (38-for-98) against Carlos Carrasco’s inside fastball since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: .259 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .368 (39-for-106) against Carlos Carrasco’s elevated fastball since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: .225 — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Phillies are just 7-15 (.318) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are just 12-16 (.429) after a loss this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .492.
The Phillies are 20-82 (.196) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .122.
The Phillies are just 5-14 (.263) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Mets are just 0-24 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .096.
The Mets are 96-13 (.881) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Mets are 26-19 (.578) after a road loss since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .450.
The Mets are 7-80 (.080) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .047.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
27% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Phillies hitter’ K:BB ratio is 4.3 against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 2.6.
Phillies hitters are slugging .240 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .335 (5,692 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Mets hitters have just 132 strikeouts in 678 PA’s (20%) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets are batting .261 on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .332 (4,463 PA’s) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 21 double plays in 362 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 5.55 (251.1 IP) on the road this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.43.
The Phillies have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 220 of 3,327 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have walked 47 of 477 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D60
- Omar Narváez (Mets): Calf, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D60
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10
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