- The Phillies are -225 favorites vs the Nationals
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams
- Watch the game on ESPN
The Philadelphia Phillies (-225) visit Muncy Bank Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field to take on the Washington Nationals (+180) on Sunday, August 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Williamsport.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).
The Phillies vs Nationals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 67-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 68-56 ATS.
Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 -135 | O 8.5 -105 | -225 |
| Nationals | +1.5 +110 | U 8.5 -115 | +180 |
Phillies vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 84.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+16.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 35 games (+13.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+13.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 30 games (+11.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 away games (+11.00 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 30 games (+11.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- Stone Garrett has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+10.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 28 games (+10.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Riley Adams has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+10.20 Units / 23% ROI)
Nationals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
Nationals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +130 | 1.5 -165 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Stone Garrett | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
Nationals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Nationals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -140 |
| Trevor Williams | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 32 away games (+9.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 53 away games (+4.55 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 32 away games (+4.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 31 away games (+3.64 Units / 9% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 games at home (+15.25 Units / 71% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 67 of their last 118 games (+9.00 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.54 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+3.00 Units / 46% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 52-71 against the Run Line (-27.65 Units / -17.93% ROI).
- 67-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.35 Units / -4.27% ROI
- 50-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.1 Units / -12.7% ROI
- 61-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.4 Units / 4.78% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 68-56 against the Run Line (+4.9 Units / 3.25% ROI).
- 56-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.7 Units / 13.96% ROI
- 57-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.3 Units / -6.82% ROI
- 60-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -2 Units / -1.49% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (213/477) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (213/477) when behind in the count this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 75.1 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (164 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,384/3,242) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Williams has a strike rate of just 51% (352/686) on sliders since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 113 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Trevor Williams has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 51% (773/1,520) of the time since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 113 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Trevor Williams has allowed a slugging percentage of .440 (106 Total Bases / 241 ABs) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: .281 — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Williams has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 51% (477/929) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are 25-102 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Phillies are 6-49 (.109) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Phillies are 11-6 (.647) after a win as underdogs this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .439.
The Phillies are 92-61 (.601) after a win since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .516.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are just 34-58 (.370) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Nationals are just 32-151 (.175) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .285.
The Nationals are just 58-38 (.604) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Nationals are just 54-91 (.372) at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .262 against LHP since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Phillies hitters are slugging .490 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .446.
24% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies hitters are slugging 1.031 with the pitcher behind in the count over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .587.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (2,987 batted balls) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Phillies pitchers have walked 173 of 2,527 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in late innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D60
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Nail, Day-to-Day
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Joshua Garcia (Nationals): Biceps, D15
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Hamstring, D15
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