- The Phillies are -110 favorites vs the Nationals
- Phillies starting pitcher: Matthew Strahm
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore
- Watch the game on MASN
The Philadelphia Phillies (-110) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-110) on Saturday, June 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Phillies vs Nationals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 25-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 35-22 ATS.
Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +145 | O 8.5 +100 | -110 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -175 | U 8.5 -120 | -110 |
Phillies vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 66.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 41 games (+15.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 28 of his last 40 games (+14.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 43 games (+14.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 29 of his last 41 games (+13.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+11.50 Units / 96% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+15.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 31 games (+12.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 37 games (+11.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+9.80 Units / 49% ROI)
Nationals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
Nationals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Joey Meneses | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Nationals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Nationals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Gore | 7.5 +115 | 7.5 -155 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 56 games (+8.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 40 games (+6.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.20 Units / 24% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 51 games (+15.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 39 games (+10.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.10 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.70 Units / 41% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 21-36 against the Run Line (-22.4 Units / -30.21% ROI).
- 25-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.75 Units / -20.3% ROI
- 24-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.4 Units / -11.91% ROI
- 29-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.7 Units / 4.26% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 35-22 against the Run Line (+11.35 Units / 16.03% ROI).
- 25-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.05 Units / 10.48% ROI
- 26-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.7 Units / -5.88% ROI
- 27-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.25 Units / -2% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .094 (3-for-32) against Matt Strahm on low fastballs since last season — 2nd best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .266 — 99th Percentile.
Matt Strahm has a strikeout rate of 42% (17 SO in 40 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs since last season — 5th best among in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 95th Percentile.
Matt Strahm has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (134/288) when behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 33% — 98th Percentile.
Matt Strahm has a strikeout rate of 42% (37 SO in 89 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs since last season — 9th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 27% — 94th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of just .132 (7 Total Bases / 53 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .371 — 97th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a first-pitch strike rate of just 43% (21/49) over the last 14 days (2 games) — lowest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a first-pitch strike rate of just 43% (21/49) — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .379 (11-for-29) against MacKenzie Gore on low fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .252 — fifth Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are just 25-35 (.417) after a loss as favorites since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .593.
The Phillies are just 5-14 (.263) after a road loss this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Phillies are 35-22 (.614) after a home win since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .539.
The Phillies are 15-84 (.152) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .088.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are just 38-72 (.345) at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Nationals are just 13-23 (.361) after a home win since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .539.
The Nationals are just 29-46 (.387) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .578.
The Nationals are just 79-120 (.397) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitters have 6 strikeouts in 12 PA’s (50%) against LHP over the past seven days (3 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .514 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .446.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .330 (1,490 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have drawn 102 walks in 1,473 PA’s (7%) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.74 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.77 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters have just 1,104 strikeouts in 5,524 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 21 double plays in 374 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 131 of 1,926 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Phillies have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D60
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Alec Bohm (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10
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