- The Phillies are -155 favorites vs the Nationals
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Philadelphia Phillies (-155) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+130) on Sunday, June 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Washington.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Phillies vs Nationals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 26-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 35-23 ATS.
Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +105 | O 9 +100 | -155 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -125 | U 9 -120 | +130 |
Phillies vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 71.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 42 games (+14.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 42 games (+14.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 28 of his last 41 games (+13.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 44 games (+13.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+12.40 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+14.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 32 games (+14.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 38 games (+12.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 32 games (+11.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+9.90 Units / 27% ROI)
Nationals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
Nationals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +150 | 1.5 -200 |
| Joey Meneses | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Nationals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Nationals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Williams | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +105 |
| Ranger Suarez | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 57 games (+9.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 41 games (+7.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.20 Units / 20% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 52 games (+13.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 40 games (+9.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.10 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 47 games (+3.15 Units / 6% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 22-36 against the Run Line (-20.9 Units / -27.81% ROI).
- 26-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.75 Units / -18.74% ROI
- 24-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.55 Units / -13.51% ROI
- 30-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.7 Units / 5.75% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 35-23 against the Run Line (+9.7 Units / 13.39% ROI).
- 25-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.95 Units / 8.41% ROI
- 26-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.85 Units / -7.57% ROI
- 28-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.25 Units / -0.39% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 44% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (24/55) with two-strikes — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 59% — first Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has a strike rate of just 57% (77/134) in late innings since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has an average spin rate of 1906.6 RPM on fastballs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: 2233.1 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .265 (18-for-68) against Ranger Suarez on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: .343 — 96th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Williams has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 52% (189/367) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Williams has located his breaking pitches down 88% of the time (424/482) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 14% (4/28) against Trevor Williams on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Trevor Williams has thrown fastballs 74% of the time (144/194) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are just 2-18 (.100) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Phillies are 20-85 (.190) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Phillies are just 13-19 (.406) after a loss this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .497.
The Phillies are just 21-38 (.356) after a road loss since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .452.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are just 25-121 (.171) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Nationals are just 38-73 (.342) at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Nationals are just 79-121 (.395) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 25-47 (.347) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .524.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitters have 6 strikeouts in 12 PA’s (50%) against LHP over the past seven days (3 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .514 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .446.
26% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals are batting .259 on the road since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 34% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals hitters have just 403 strikeouts in 2,164 PA’s (19%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 21 double plays in 374 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Phillies have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 131 of 1,926 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D60
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Alec Bohm (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10
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