Phillies vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 4

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 04, 2023, 3:34 PM
  • The Phillies are -155 favorites vs the Nationals
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Philadelphia Phillies (-155) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+130) on Sunday, June 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Washington.

The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Phillies vs Nationals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

This season, the Phillies are 26-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 35-23 ATS.

Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 +105O 9 +100-155
Nationals +1.5 -125U 9 -120+130

Phillies vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 71.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 42 games (+14.90 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 42 games (+14.80 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Trea Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 28 of his last 41 games (+13.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 44 games (+13.10 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+12.40 Units / 21% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+14.60 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 32 games (+14.50 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 38 games (+12.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 32 games (+11.00 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+9.90 Units / 27% ROI)

Nationals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryce Harper 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Joey Meneses 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Alex Call 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Dominic Smith 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000

Nationals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryce Harper 1.5 +150 1.5 -200
Joey Meneses 1.5 +190 1.5 -250
Alex Call 0.5 -150 0.5 +115
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Dominic Smith 0.5 -210 0.5 +160

Nationals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryce Harper 0.5 +130 0.5 -165
Joey Meneses 0.5 +160 0.5 -210
Alex Call 0.5 +250 0.5 -350
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +145 0.5 -190
Dominic Smith 0.5 +190 0.5 -250

Nationals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Trevor Williams 3.5 -145 3.5 +105
Ranger Suarez 3.5 -145 3.5 +110
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 57 games (+9.75 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 41 games (+7.50 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.20 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 52 games (+13.80 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 40 games (+9.85 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.10 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 47 games (+3.15 Units / 6% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 22-36 against the Run Line (-20.9 Units / -27.81% ROI).

  • 26-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.75 Units / -18.74% ROI
  • 24-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.55 Units / -13.51% ROI
  • 30-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.7 Units / 5.75% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 35-23 against the Run Line (+9.7 Units / 13.39% ROI).

  • 25-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.95 Units / 8.41% ROI
  • 26-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.85 Units / -7.57% ROI
  • 28-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.25 Units / -0.39% ROI

Hitters have swung at 44% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (24/55) with two-strikes — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 59% — first Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has a strike rate of just 57% (77/134) in late innings since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has an average spin rate of 1906.6 RPM on fastballs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: 2233.1 — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .265 (18-for-68) against Ranger Suarez on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: .343 — 96th Percentile.

Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Trevor Williams has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 52% (189/367) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.

Trevor Williams has located his breaking pitches down 88% of the time (424/482) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 14% (4/28) against Trevor Williams on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.

Trevor Williams has thrown fastballs 74% of the time (144/194) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Phillies are just 2-18 (.100) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.

The Phillies are 20-85 (.190) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .123.

The Phillies are just 13-19 (.406) after a loss this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .497.

The Phillies are just 21-38 (.356) after a road loss since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .452.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Nationals are just 25-121 (.171) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.

The Nationals are just 38-73 (.342) at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.

The Nationals are just 79-121 (.395) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Nationals are just 25-47 (.347) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .524.

Phillies hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Phillies hitters have 6 strikeouts in 12 PA’s (50%) against LHP over the past seven days (3 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Phillies hitters are slugging .514 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .446.

26% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

The Nationals are batting .259 on the road since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 34% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Nationals hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Nationals hitters have just 403 strikeouts in 2,164 PA’s (19%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 21 double plays in 374 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

The Phillies have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 131 of 1,926 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Nationals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
  • Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D60
  • Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
  • José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
  • Alec Bohm (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
  • Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
  • Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
  • Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.