Phillies vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 2

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 02, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Phillies (85-73) are -250 favorites vs the Nationals (55-103)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler (11-7), 2.91 ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin (6-18), 6.08 ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN2

The Philadelphia Phillies (-250) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+200) on Sunday, October 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Washington.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+110).

The Phillies vs Nationals Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 85-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 71-87 ATS.

Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-2.5 +110O 7 +100-250
Nationals +2.5 -135U 7 -120+200

Phillies vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s matchup with 56.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Nationals vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 40 of his last 57 away games (+19.40 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 61 away games (+14.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 37 of his last 55 away games (+13.10 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+11.95 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.80 Units / 38% ROI)

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 40 of his last 49 games (+22.40 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Luke Voit has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 37 games (+15.80 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 41 games (+15.70 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Nelson Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 30 games at home (+14.50 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Joey Meneses has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 49 games (+14.10 Units / 21% ROI)

Nationals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
C.J. Abrams 0.5 +1000 0.5 -10000
Ildemaro Vargas 0.5 +1350 0.5
Joey Meneses 0.5 +900 0.5 -5000
Lane Thomas 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000
Luis Garcia 0.5 +1000 0.5 -10000

Nationals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
C.J. Abrams 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Ildemaro Vargas 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Joey Meneses 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Lane Thomas 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Luis Garcia 0.5 -185 0.5 +125

Nationals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
C.J. Abrams 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Ildemaro Vargas 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Joey Meneses 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Lane Thomas 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
Luis Garcia 0.5 +240 0.5 -375

Nationals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Patrick Corbin 3.5 -150 3.5 +105
Zack Wheeler 5.5 -150 5.5 +105
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 108 games (+10.00 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 48 away games (+8.55 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 107 games (+3.65 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 91 games (+9.90 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 65 games (+8.30 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 44 games (+6.35 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 39 games (+4.40 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 7 games (+0.75 Units / 11% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 79-79 against the Run Line (-3.75 Units / -1.95% ROI).

  • 85-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.1 Units / -1.35% ROI
  • 79-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.3 Units / -0.74% ROI
  • 73-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.9 Units / -7.45% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 71-87 against the Run Line (-22.75 Units / -11.98% ROI).

  • 55-103 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.65 Units / -9.58% ROI
  • 73-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.65 Units / -6.07% ROI
  • 76-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.45 Units / -2% ROI

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 79.4 MPH on inside pitches since the start of last season (453 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: 85.3

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH on pitches in the strike zone since the start of last season (741 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: 90.7

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 83.2 MPH with runners in scoring position since the start of last season (169 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: 87.9

Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (421/981) when behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Patrick Corbin: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Patrick Corbin has located his pitches away 63% of the time (724/1,153) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.

Patrick Corbin has allowed a slugging percentage of .572 (123 Total Bases / 215 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: .368 — 0 Percentile.

Patrick Corbin has allowed a slugging percentage of .714 (50 Total Bases / 70 ABs) in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: .394 — first Percentile.

Patrick Corbin has located his pitches away 64% of the time (896/1,395) vs left-handed batters since the start of 2020 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Phillies are 69-5 (.932) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Phillies are 70-24 (.745) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 14-55 (.203) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Nationals are just 17-90 (.159) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Nationals are just 38-7 (.844) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .882.

The Nationals are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Nationals are just 29-49 (.372) on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .470.

Phillies hitters have 28 strikeouts in 75 PA’s (37%) against LHP over the last 14 days (9 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Phillies hitters are slugging .534 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.

Phillies hitters have 6 strikeouts in 11 PA’s (55%) against LHP over the past seven days (3 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

The Phillies are batting .260 at home this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Nationals hitters are slugging .235 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 294 double plays in 2,311 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Nationals hitters have 61 extra-base hits out of 236 total hits (just 26%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 183 of 2,825 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .249 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .258 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.

The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Nationals have won just 21% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Nationals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
  • Keibert Ruiz (Nationals): Groin, D10
  • Nelson Cruz (Nationals): Eyes, Day-to-Day
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Bradley Hand (Phillies): Elbow, D15
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.