- The Phillies (85-73) are -250 favorites vs the Nationals (55-103)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler (11-7), 2.91 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin (6-18), 6.08 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN2
The Philadelphia Phillies (-250) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+200) on Sunday, October 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Washington.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+110).
The Phillies vs Nationals Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 85-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 71-87 ATS.
Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -2.5 +110 | O 7 +100 | -250 |
| Nationals | +2.5 -135 | U 7 -120 | +200 |
Phillies vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s matchup with 56.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 40 of his last 57 away games (+19.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 61 away games (+14.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 37 of his last 55 away games (+13.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+11.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.80 Units / 38% ROI)
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 40 of his last 49 games (+22.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- Luke Voit has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 37 games (+15.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 41 games (+15.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 30 games at home (+14.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 49 games (+14.10 Units / 21% ROI)
Nationals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +1350 | 0.5 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
Nationals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
Nationals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
Nationals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +105 |
| Zack Wheeler | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 108 games (+10.00 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 48 away games (+8.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 107 games (+3.65 Units / 3% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 91 games (+9.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 65 games (+8.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 44 games (+6.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 39 games (+4.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 7 games (+0.75 Units / 11% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 79-79 against the Run Line (-3.75 Units / -1.95% ROI).
- 85-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.1 Units / -1.35% ROI
- 79-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.3 Units / -0.74% ROI
- 73-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.9 Units / -7.45% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 71-87 against the Run Line (-22.75 Units / -11.98% ROI).
- 55-103 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.65 Units / -9.58% ROI
- 73-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.65 Units / -6.07% ROI
- 76-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.45 Units / -2% ROI
Zachary Wheeler: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 79.4 MPH on inside pitches since the start of last season (453 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: 85.3
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH on pitches in the strike zone since the start of last season (741 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: 90.7
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 83.2 MPH with runners in scoring position since the start of last season (169 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: 87.9
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (421/981) when behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Patrick Corbin: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Patrick Corbin has located his pitches away 63% of the time (724/1,153) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed a slugging percentage of .572 (123 Total Bases / 215 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: .368 — 0 Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed a slugging percentage of .714 (50 Total Bases / 70 ABs) in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: .394 — first Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has located his pitches away 64% of the time (896/1,395) vs left-handed batters since the start of 2020 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are 69-5 (.932) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Phillies are 70-24 (.745) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 14-55 (.203) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are just 17-90 (.159) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Nationals are just 38-7 (.844) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .882.
The Nationals are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals are just 29-49 (.372) on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .470.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have 28 strikeouts in 75 PA’s (37%) against LHP over the last 14 days (9 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .534 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies hitters have 6 strikeouts in 11 PA’s (55%) against LHP over the past seven days (3 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Phillies are batting .260 at home this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters are slugging .235 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 294 double plays in 2,311 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Nationals hitters have 61 extra-base hits out of 236 total hits (just 26%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 183 of 2,825 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .249 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .258 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals have won just 21% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Keibert Ruiz (Nationals): Groin, D10
- Nelson Cruz (Nationals): Eyes, Day-to-Day
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Calf, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Hand (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
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