- The Phillies are -165 favorites vs the Padres
- Phillies vs Padres Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Phillies / Padres TV Channel: NSPA | PDTV | MLBN
The Philadelphia Phillies (-160) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (+135) on Friday, July 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA, CA.
This season, the Phillies are 54-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 48-45 ATS.
Phillies vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 7-2, 1.99 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Ryan Bergert 1-0, 2.67 ERA
Phillies vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +105 | O 8 -110 | -160 |
| Padres | +1.5 -125 | U 8 -110 | +135 |
Phillies vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB game with 59.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Max Kepler has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+9.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ranger Suarez has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.30 Units / 73% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+9.15 Units / 114% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+8.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.25 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+13.80 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.20 Units / 51% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 43 away games (+14.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 40 of their last 75 games (+13.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 47 away games (+13.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 23 away games (+12.10 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games (+8.55 Units / 27% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 51 games (+20.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 79 games (+11.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 73 games (+11.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 44 games at home (+5.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 46 games at home (+3.80 Units / 6% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 48-44 against the Run Line (+1.05 Units / 0.91% ROI).
- 54-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.85 Units / 2.66% ROI
- 38-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.85 Units / -18.46% ROI
- 52-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.35 Units / 10.09% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 48-45 against the Run Line (-0.9 Units / -0.75% ROI).
- 50-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 0.12% ROI
- 38-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.75 Units / -18.4% ROI
- 52-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.05 Units / 9.77% ROI
Padres vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Padres vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Padres vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Padres vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Bergert (SD) | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -125 |
| Ranger Suarez (PHI) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 31% (51/163) against Ranger Suarez on pitches in the strike zone this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% (58/210) against Ranger Suarez this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .220 (22 Total Bases / 100 ABs) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .428 — 100th Percentile.
Right handed batters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% (51/185) against Ranger Suarez this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Bergert has limited playing time.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Phillies are 9-25 (.265) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .126.
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 21-72 (.226) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .137.
The Phillies are 48-1 (.980) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .956.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Padres are 9-32 (.220) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .126.
The Padres are 47-14 (.770) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Padres are 8-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Padres are 13-2 (.867) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .407 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .292 (432 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
The Phillies have scored first in 61% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Phillies hitters have chased 20% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres have scored first in 85% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres hitters have chased 42% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Phillies pitchers this month (8 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Phillies have allowed 3.38 runs per game (159/47) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 15% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Padres pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 64% of the time over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Batters facing the Padres pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 55% of the time this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
More MLB Reading:
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