- The Phillies are -130 favorites vs the Padres
- Phillies vs Padres Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Phillies / Padres TV Channel: NSPA | PDTV
The Philadelphia Phillies (-130) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (+110) on Sunday, July 13, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego, CA, CA.
This season, the Phillies are 54-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 50-45 ATS.
Phillies vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez 7-2, 2.59 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 9-2, 3.08 ERA
Phillies vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +135 | O 7.5 -115 | -130 |
| Padres | +1.5 -160 | U 7.5 -105 | +110 |
Phillies vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 games (+11.50 Units / 128% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+11.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.00 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+16.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.20 Units / 50% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+11.00 Units / 138% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.20 Units / 34% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 45 away games (+14.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 25 away games (+14.10 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 77 games (+12.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 49 away games (+12.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 51 of their last 91 games (+7.13 Units / 6% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 53 games (+18.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 81 games (+11.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 75 games (+9.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 46 games at home (+7.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 48 games at home (+6.70 Units / 10% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 48-46 against the Run Line (-0.95 Units / -0.81% ROI).
- 54-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.5 Units / 0.34% ROI
- 39-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.9 Units / -18.12% ROI
- 53-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.3 Units / 9.83% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 50-45 against the Run Line (+1.1 Units / 0.9% ROI).
- 52-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.05 Units / 2.45% ROI
- 39-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.8 Units / -18.06% ROI
- 53-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +10 Units / 9.51% ROI
Padres vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Padres vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Padres vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta (SD) | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +120 |
| Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cristopher Sanchez has a strikeout rate of 54% with two strikes this season — tied for third highest among qualified SPs– 96th Percentile. He had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two strikes last season — sixth lowest among qualified SPs– 11th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 87% (13/15) against Cristopher Sanchez in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 78% (31/40) against Cristopher Sanchez in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez has thrown his changeup 53% of the time (243/463) with two-strikes this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (28/95) against Nick Pivetta in two-strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of just .228 (162 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .292 — 97th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated sliders36% of the time (111/311) this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 13% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of just .163 (34 Total Bases / 208 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .251 — 97th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Phillies are 9-26 (.257) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .125.
The Phillies are 21-73 (.223) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .137.
The Phillies are 40-2 (.952) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .874.
The Phillies are just 12-26 (.316) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Padres are 8-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Padres are 9-32 (.220) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .125.
The Padres are 49-14 (.778) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Padres are 38-30 (.559) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Phillies (Ranks sixth runs allowed) today.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .401 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Phillies hitters have chased 20% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
The Phillies are batting .266 against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .330 (2,532 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres have scored first in 85% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Phillies have won 54% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 15% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Batters facing the Padres pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 62% of the time over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
More MLB Reading:
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