- The Padres (44-27) are -175 favorites vs the Phillies (36-34)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez (5-4), 4.43 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove (8-0), 1.59 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Philadelphia Phillies (+145) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-175) on Thursday, June 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Phillies vs Padres Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 36-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 39-32 ATS.
Phillies vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -150 | O 7 +100 | +145 |
| Padres | -1.5 +125 | U 7 -120 | -175 |
Phillies vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s matchup with 50.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.45 Units / 46% ROI)
- Didi Gregorius has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+5.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 11 away games (+4.25 Units / 23% ROI)
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.95 Units / 61% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.75 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 84% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Runs Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.60 Units / 61% ROI)
Padres vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jorge Alfaro | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Padres vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jorge Alfaro | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
Padres vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jorge Alfaro | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
Padres vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Musgrove | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 -105 |
| Ranger Suarez | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -155 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 54 games (+10.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 38 of their last 65 games (+9.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+8.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 19 games (+4.35 Units / 20% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 70 games (+12.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+8.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 36 games (+6.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 25 of their last 46 games (+6.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 20 games (+1.05 Units / 4% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 34-36 against the Run Line (-3.05 Units / -3.58% ROI).
- 36-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -5 Units / -5.25% ROI
- 39-29 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.3 Units / 9.45% ROI
- 29-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.6 Units / -17.69% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 39-32 against the Run Line (+7.9 Units / 8.79% ROI).
- 44-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.6 Units / 10.76% ROI
- 31-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.15 Units / -13.09% ROI
- 38-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +4 Units / 5.06% ROI
Ranger Suárez: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ranger Suarez has walked 25 of 226 right-handed batters (11%) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — fourth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 22% (102/468) against Ranger Suarez this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — first Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has a strike rate of just 60% (540/896) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .348 (16-for-46) against Ranger Suarez’s elevated fastball this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — ninth Percentile.
Joseph Musgrove: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .160 (4-for-25) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .324 — 98th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has an ERA of 1.59 (79.0 IP)this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.55 — 98th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed a slugging percentage of just .209 (32 Total Bases / 153 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .350 — 97th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed a slugging percentage of just .157 (8 Total Bases / 51 ABs) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .365 — 98th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Phillies are 8-26 (.235) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .075.
The Phillies are just 25-4 (.862) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .901.
The Phillies are 7-25 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .099.
The Phillies are just 11-18 (.379) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Padres are 24-14 (.632) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Padres are 15-5 (.750) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .674.
The Padres are just 35-4 (.897) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .925.
The Padres are 36-8 (.818) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .773 (839 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .749 (1,336 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .694.
Phillies hitters have just 30 strikeouts in 187 PA’s (16%) against LHP over the last 14 days (11 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .335 (839 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,270 of their 3,781 plate appearances (34%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Padres are batting .256 on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Padres hitters are slugging .389 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (14 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .285.
The Padres are batting .245 with two outs since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .231.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .278 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .255 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 455.4
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .154 against Padres pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .185 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: .224.
The Padres have won 59% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Manuel Machado (Padres): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): COVID-19, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D15
- Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
- Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
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