Phillies vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 23

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 23, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Padres (44-27) are -175 favorites vs the Phillies (36-34)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez (5-4), 4.43 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove (8-0), 1.59 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Philadelphia Phillies (+145) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-175) on Thursday, June 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Phillies vs Padres Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 36-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 39-32 ATS.

Phillies vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies+1.5 -150O 7 +100+145
Padres -1.5 +125U 7 -120-175

Phillies vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s matchup with 50.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Padres vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
  • J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.45 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Didi Gregorius has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 54% ROI)
  • J.T. Realmuto has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+5.00 Units / 30% ROI)
  • J.T. Realmuto has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 11 away games (+4.25 Units / 23% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.95 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.75 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Runs Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.60 Units / 61% ROI)

Padres vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
C.J. Abrams 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +750 0.5 -2500
Jorge Alfaro 0.5 +375 0.5 -700

Padres vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
C.J. Abrams 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Jorge Alfaro 0.5 -275 0.5 +180

Padres vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
C.J. Abrams 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Jorge Alfaro 0.5 +145 0.5 -200

Padres vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Joe Musgrove 5.5 -140 5.5 -105
Ranger Suarez 4.5 +110 4.5 -155
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 54 games (+10.25 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 38 of their last 65 games (+9.00 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+8.10 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 19 games (+4.35 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 70 games (+12.00 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+8.90 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 36 games (+6.80 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 25 of their last 46 games (+6.50 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 20 games (+1.05 Units / 4% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 34-36 against the Run Line (-3.05 Units / -3.58% ROI).

  • 36-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -5 Units / -5.25% ROI
  • 39-29 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.3 Units / 9.45% ROI
  • 29-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.6 Units / -17.69% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 39-32 against the Run Line (+7.9 Units / 8.79% ROI).

  • 44-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.6 Units / 10.76% ROI
  • 31-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.15 Units / -13.09% ROI
  • 38-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +4 Units / 5.06% ROI

Ranger Suarez has walked 25 of 226 right-handed batters (11%) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — fourth Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 22% (102/468) against Ranger Suarez this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — first Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has a strike rate of just 60% (540/896) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .348 (16-for-46) against Ranger Suarez’s elevated fastball this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — ninth Percentile.

Joseph Musgrove: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .160 (4-for-25) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .324 — 98th Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has an ERA of 1.59 (79.0 IP)this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.55 — 98th Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has allowed a slugging percentage of just .209 (32 Total Bases / 153 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .350 — 97th Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has allowed a slugging percentage of just .157 (8 Total Bases / 51 ABs) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .365 — 98th Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Phillies are 8-26 (.235) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .075.

The Phillies are just 25-4 (.862) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .901.

The Phillies are 7-25 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .099.

The Phillies are just 11-18 (.379) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Padres are 24-14 (.632) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .486.

The Padres are 15-5 (.750) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .674.

The Padres are just 35-4 (.897) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .925.

The Padres are 36-8 (.818) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .773 (839 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .715.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .749 (1,336 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .694.

Phillies hitters have just 30 strikeouts in 187 PA’s (16%) against LHP over the last 14 days (11 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .335 (839 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .317.

Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,270 of their 3,781 plate appearances (34%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

The Padres are batting .256 on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .239.

Padres hitters are slugging .389 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (14 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .285.

The Padres are batting .245 with two outs since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .231.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .278 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: .214.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .255 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 455.4

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .154 against Padres pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .214.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .185 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: .224.

The Padres have won 59% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Padres vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Manuel Machado (Padres): Ankle, Day-to-Day
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Joseph Musgrove (Padres): COVID-19, D15
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D15
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.