- The Padres (45-28) are -130 favorites vs the Phillies (37-35)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Eflin (2-5), 4.42 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell (0-4), 5.46 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSD
The Philadelphia Phillies (+110) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-130) on Saturday, June 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Phillies vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 37-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 40-33 ATS.
Phillies vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -185 | O 7.5 -105 | +110 |
| Padres | -1.5 +150 | U 7.5 -115 | -130 |
Phillies vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s matchup with 60.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 11 away games (+7.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+6.50 Units / 71% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 11 away games (+6.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 52% ROI)
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in his last 6 games (+7.85 Units / 129% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.60 Units / 60% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+6.35 Units / 46% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.65 Units / 36% ROI)
Padres vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jorge Alfaro | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Padres vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -115 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jorge Alfaro | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Padres vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jorge Alfaro | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
Padres vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Blake Snell | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 -110 |
| Zach Eflin | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -135 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 56 games (+10.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+8.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games (+6.70 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 21 games (+4.35 Units / 18% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 72 games (+11.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 72 games (+8.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 27 of their last 48 games (+8.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 38 games (+6.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 22 games (+0.95 Units / 4% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 35-37 against the Run Line (-3.05 Units / -3.47% ROI).
- 37-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -5 Units / -5.13% ROI
- 40-30 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.1 Units / 8.93% ROI
- 30-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.75 Units / -17.39% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 40-33 against the Run Line (+7.9 Units / 8.55% ROI).
- 45-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.2 Units / 10.09% ROI
- 32-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.35 Units / -12.97% ROI
- 39-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.85 Units / 4.74% ROI
Zachary Eflin: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Eflin has an ERA of 9.67 (22.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 3.91 — first Percentile.
Zach Eflin has allowed a slugging percentage of .739 (34 Total Bases / 46 ABs) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: .393 — 0 Percentile.
Zach Eflin has an ERA of 8.65 (26.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 4.07 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .545 (18-for-33) against Zach Eflin on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: .333 — first Percentile.
Blake Snell: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Blake Snell has walked 72 of 535 right-handed batters (14%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Blake Snell has walked 86 of 681 batters (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Blake Snell has walked 30 of 180 batters (17%) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 0 Percentile.
Blake Snell has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 86.3 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (72 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 80.3
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Phillies are 8-27 (.229) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .075.
The Phillies are just 26-4 (.867) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .901.
The Phillies are just 13-22 (.371) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 7-26 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .099.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Padres are 37-8 (.822) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Padres are 15-5 (.750) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .674.
The Padres are 20-5 (.800) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Padres are 24-14 (.632) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .489.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging just .240 over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of just .487 (219 PA’s) over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Phillies are 8-27 (.229) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .075.
Phillies hitters are slugging .632 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .563.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,272 of their 3,789 plate appearances (34%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Padres hitters are slugging .237 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .209.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .282 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .216.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .157 against Padres pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .216.
Padres pitchers have walked 39 of 661 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
The Padres have won 59% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Manuel Machado (Padres): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D15
- Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
- Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
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