- The Phillies are -130 favorites vs the Padres
- Phillies vs Padres Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Phillies / Padres TV Channel: NSPA | PDTV | ESUN
The Philadelphia Phillies (-130) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (+105) on May 25, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 pm in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Phillies are 26-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 29-22 ATS.
Phillies vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 3-4, 4.85 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 5-2, 2.97 ERA
Phillies vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +135 | O 7.5 -115 | -130 |
| Padres | +1.5 -165 | U 7.5 -105 | +105 |
Phillies vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Monday‘s MLB game with 56.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryson Stott has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+20.50 Units / 228% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+13.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+12.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- Adolis Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+11.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.45 Units / 49% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Freddy Fermin has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+14.35 Units / 55% ROI)
- Freddy Fermin has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+9.80 Units / 163% ROI)
- Freddy Fermin has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Freddy Fermin has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.85 Units / 26% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Padres Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 16-37 against the Run Line (-22.75 Units / -37.33% ROI).
- 26-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.45 Units / -11.09% ROI
- 24-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.45 Units / -7.76% ROI
- 27-24 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.1 Units / -0.18% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 29-22 against the Run Line (+6.05 Units / 8.85% ROI).
- 31-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.35 Units / 14.82% ROI
- 22-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.6 Units / -13.51% ROI
- 28-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.9 Units / 5.17% ROI
Padres vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Yes | |
|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | +230 |
| Bryce Harper | +390 |
| Manny Machado | +475 |
| Adolis Garcia | +575 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | +625 |
Padres vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +170 |
| Miguel Andujar | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Padres vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Randy Vasquez | 3.5 -118 | 3.5 -110 |
| Jesus Luzardo | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -135 |
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Phillies are just 1-12 (.077) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Phillies are 6-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .791.
The Phillies are 3-25 (.107) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Phillies are 21-70 (.231) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .128.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Padres are 4-20 (.167) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are 18-1 (.947) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
The Padres are 4-19 (.174) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .105.
The Padres are 12-1 (.923) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .754.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .215 (1,057 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of just .439 (1,057 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of just .631 (880 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .298 (1,988 PA’s) this season — 4th lowest in MLB.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have an OPS of just .661 (1,894 PA’s) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.
The Padres are batting just .207 against starting pitchers this season — lowest in MLB.
Padres hitters have an OBP of just .271 (1,129 PA’s) with bases empty this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.
Padres hitters have an OBP of just .280 (393 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB.
Phillies pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — 2nd best in MLB.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .290 against Phillies pitchers this season — highest in MLB.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH (1,322 batted balls) this season — best in MLB.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Padres pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .272 against Padres pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% in late innings this season — 2nd best in MLB.
More MLB Reading:
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