Phillies vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 18, NLCS

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 18, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Phillies are +100 favorites vs the Padres
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler, 2.18 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish, 3.00 ERA
  • Watch the game on Fox Sports 1

The Philadelphia Phillies (+100) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-120) on Tuesday, October 18, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:03pm EDT in San Diego for this postseason game.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+170).

The Phillies vs Padres Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 92-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 78-91 ATS.

Phillies vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 +170O 6.5 +100+100
Padres +1.5 -210U 6.5 -120-120

Phillies vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Padres vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 50 away games (+20.35 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 35 of his last 50 away games (+14.65 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 40 of his last 79 games (+13.35 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 43 away games (+13.10 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 41 away games (+12.50 Units / 16% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Drury has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 28 games at home (+15.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Mike Clevinger has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.10 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+11.70 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 games at home (+11.65 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 38 games (+11.15 Units / 22% ROI)

Padres vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +675 0.5 -2500
Brandon Marsh 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Bryce Harper 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
Bryson Stott 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +425 0.5 -800

Padres vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Brandon Marsh 0.5 -120 0.5 -120
Bryce Harper 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Bryson Stott 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -275 0.5 +180

Padres vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Brandon Marsh 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Bryce Harper 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Bryson Stott 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +180 0.5 -275

Padres vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Yu Darvish 5.5 -110 5.5 -135
Zack Wheeler 4.5 -145 4.5 +100
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 56 away games (+23.28 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 118 games (+14.85 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 64 of their last 117 games (+9.30 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 56 away games (+8.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.73 Units / 96% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 44 of their last 77 games at home (+15.40 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 32 games (+9.00 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+8.35 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+7.30 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 82 games at home (+5.80 Units / 6% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 87-81 against the Run Line (+1.9 Units / 0.91% ROI).

  • 92-76 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 0.72% ROI
  • 85-77 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.5 Units / 0.27% ROI
  • 77-85 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.25 Units / -8.28% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 78-91 against the Run Line (-19.45 Units / -9.18% ROI).

  • 94-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.8 Units / -3.5% ROI
  • 80-84 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.7 Units / -6.31% ROI
  • 84-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.95 Units / -2.11% ROI

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.5 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (189 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 80.2

Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (1,694/3,826) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.0 MPH on pitches in the strike zone since the start of last season (747 balls in play) — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 90.7

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.1 MPH since the start of last season (936 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 88.6

Yu Darvish: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .156 (67-for-429) against Yu Darvish’s fastball since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .261 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (11/94) against Yu Darvish on inside fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .095 (16-for-169) against Yu Darvish’s elevated fastball since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .221 — 100th Percentile.

Yu Darvish has thrown his cutter 43% of the time (332/771) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total CUT; League Avg: 19% — 97th Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Phillies are 72-5 (.935) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Phillies are 47-34 (.580) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .532.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Padres are 74-25 (.747) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Padres are 22-2 (.917) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

The Padres are 71-7 (.910) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Padres are 46-37 (.554) on the road this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .468.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .338 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.

The Phillies are batting .266 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Phillies hitters are slugging .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.

Phillies hitters have 19 extra-base hits out of 31 total hits (61%) against RHP this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 33%.

Padres hitters have an OPS of just .672 (2,955 PA’s) at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.

Padres hitters have 9 strikeouts in 22 PA’s (41%) against LHP this month (3 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Padres hitters are slugging just .383 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.

Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .248 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 1,448 times this season — 5th fewest in MLB.

Padres pitchers have walked 10 of 53 batters (19%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (14 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Padres pitchers have walked 11 of 71 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (8 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Padres vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.