- The Phillies are +100 favorites vs the Padres
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler, 2.18 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish, 3.00 ERA
- Watch the game on Fox Sports 1
The Philadelphia Phillies (+100) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-120) on Tuesday, October 18, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:03pm EDT in San Diego for this postseason game.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+170).
The Phillies vs Padres Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 92-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 78-91 ATS.
Phillies vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +170 | O 6.5 +100 | +100 |
| Padres | +1.5 -210 | U 6.5 -120 | -120 |
Phillies vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 50 away games (+20.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 35 of his last 50 away games (+14.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 40 of his last 79 games (+13.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 43 away games (+13.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 41 away games (+12.50 Units / 16% ROI)
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Drury has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 28 games at home (+15.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Mike Clevinger has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.10 Units / 48% ROI)
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+11.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 games at home (+11.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 38 games (+11.15 Units / 22% ROI)
Padres vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Padres vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -120 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
Padres vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
Padres vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -135 |
| Zack Wheeler | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +100 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 56 away games (+23.28 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 118 games (+14.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 64 of their last 117 games (+9.30 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 56 away games (+8.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.73 Units / 96% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 44 of their last 77 games at home (+15.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 32 games (+9.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+8.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+7.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 82 games at home (+5.80 Units / 6% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 87-81 against the Run Line (+1.9 Units / 0.91% ROI).
- 92-76 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 0.72% ROI
- 85-77 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.5 Units / 0.27% ROI
- 77-85 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.25 Units / -8.28% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 78-91 against the Run Line (-19.45 Units / -9.18% ROI).
- 94-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.8 Units / -3.5% ROI
- 80-84 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.7 Units / -6.31% ROI
- 84-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.95 Units / -2.11% ROI
Zachary Wheeler: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.5 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (189 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 80.2
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (1,694/3,826) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.0 MPH on pitches in the strike zone since the start of last season (747 balls in play) — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 90.7
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.1 MPH since the start of last season (936 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 88.6
Yu Darvish: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .156 (67-for-429) against Yu Darvish’s fastball since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .261 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (11/94) against Yu Darvish on inside fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .095 (16-for-169) against Yu Darvish’s elevated fastball since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .221 — 100th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has thrown his cutter 43% of the time (332/771) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total CUT; League Avg: 19% — 97th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Phillies are 72-5 (.935) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Phillies are 47-34 (.580) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Padres are 74-25 (.747) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Padres are 22-2 (.917) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Padres are 71-7 (.910) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Padres are 46-37 (.554) on the road this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .338 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Phillies are batting .266 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Phillies hitters are slugging .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies hitters have 19 extra-base hits out of 31 total hits (61%) against RHP this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have an OPS of just .672 (2,955 PA’s) at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Padres hitters have 9 strikeouts in 22 PA’s (41%) against LHP this month (3 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .383 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .248 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 1,448 times this season — 5th fewest in MLB.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have walked 10 of 53 batters (19%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (14 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Padres pitchers have walked 11 of 71 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (8 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Padres vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
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