- The Padres are -120 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker
- Padres starting pitcher: Richard Hill
- Watch the game on SDPA
The Philadelphia Phillies (+100) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-120) on Monday, September 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Phillies vs Padres Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 75-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 67-71 ATS.
Phillies vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -190 | O 9 +100 | +100 |
| Padres | -1.5 +155 | U 9 -120 | -120 |
Phillies vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 54.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 39 of his last 48 games (+20.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 24 away games (+15.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+14.35 Units / 130% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+12.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+12.05 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 36 of his last 50 games (+19.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 30 of his last 50 games (+19.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+12.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+12.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+12.00 Units / 58% ROI)
Padres vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Padres vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Padres vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Padres vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Taijuan Walker | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +105 |
| Rich Hill | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 26 games (+7.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 31 games (+6.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 36 away games (+5.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.72 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.50 Units / 31% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 70 of their last 131 games (+14.30 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 46 games at home (+11.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 72 of their last 128 games (+10.35 Units / 7% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.34 Units / 66% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.20 Units / 64% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 59-77 against the Run Line (-25.2 Units / -15.01% ROI).
- 75-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.25 Units / -3.76% ROI
- 58-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.6 Units / -9.8% ROI
- 66-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.5 Units / 1.69% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 67-71 against the Run Line (-8.25 Units / -4.94% ROI).
- 65-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -34.8 Units / -17.16% ROI
- 56-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.6 Units / -15.99% ROI
- 72-56 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.05 Units / 7.36% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Taijuan Walker has a strike rate of just 61% (1,410/2,311) this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 18% (91/506) against Taijuan Walker this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — seventh Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has a strike rate of just 62% (709/1,146) against right-handed batters this season — tied for 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 10th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% (213/1,013) against Taijuan Walker this season — tied for 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 16th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Rich Hill has thrown elevated pitches 49% of the time (924/1,894) against right-handed batters this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
20 of Rich Hill’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 3rd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 96th Percentile.
Rich Hill has an average fastball velocity of just 88.0 MPH this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 93.9 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .302 (110-for-364) against Rich Hill’s non-fastballs this season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .226 — third Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Phillies are 27-106 (.203) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .131.
The Phillies are 7-53 (.117) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Phillies are 20-18 (.526) after a win as underdogs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Phillies are 29-11 (.725) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .611.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Padres are just 2-9 (.182) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .436.
The Padres are just 7-31 (.184) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
The Padres are just 2-6 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 3-6 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .565 against RHP over the last 30 days (26 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .421.
Phillies hitters are slugging .590 at home over the last 30 days (19 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .431.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .915 (688 PA’s) against RHP over the last 30 days (26 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .741.
Phillies hitters are slugging .583 over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .427.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 44% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have drawn 406 walks in 3,703 PA’s (11%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have drawn 143 walks in 1,487 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 177 of 2,633 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 385 of 5,045 batters (8%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,309 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 37% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 3.47 (643.0 IP) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.22.
Padres vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Padres): Rib, D10
- Steven Wilson (Padres): Hip, D15
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Groin, Day-to-Day
- Jacob Cronenworth (Padres): Wrist, D10
- Alek Jacob (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Yu Darvish (Padres): Elbow, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
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