- The Phillies are -105 favorites vs the Padres
- Phillies starting pitcher: Michael Lorenzen
- Padres starting pitcher: Pedro Avila
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Philadelphia Phillies (-105) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-115) on Tuesday, September 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+160).
The Phillies vs Padres Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 76-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 67-72 ATS.
Phillies vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +160 | O 9 -110 | -105 |
| Padres | +1.5 -190 | U 9 -110 | -115 |
Phillies vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 59.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 39 of his last 49 games (+18.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+16.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+15.85 Units / 132% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+13.05 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 35 of his last 48 games (+19.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 29 of his last 49 games (+17.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+12.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+12.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+12.00 Units / 58% ROI)
Padres vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Padres vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -250 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Padres vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pedro Avila | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
| Michael Lorenzen | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 27 games (+8.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 32 games (+7.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 37 away games (+6.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 away games (+4.57 Units / 20% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 70 of their last 132 games (+13.10 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 47 games at home (+10.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 72 of their last 129 games (+9.15 Units / 6% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.34 Units / 69% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.20 Units / 42% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 60-77 against the Run Line (-24.2 Units / -14.25% ROI).
- 76-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.25 Units / -3.23% ROI
- 59-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.6 Units / -9.07% ROI
- 66-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.3 Units / 0.87% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 67-72 against the Run Line (-9.25 Units / -5.5% ROI).
- 65-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -36 Units / -17.65% ROI
- 57-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.6 Units / -15.25% ROI
- 72-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.85 Units / 6.51% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .175 (11-for-63) against Michael Lorenzen on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .260 — 100th Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has allowed a BABIP of .227 vs left-handed batters this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .295 — 100th Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has a strikeout rate of just 11% (16 SO in 140 PAs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has allowed a slugging percentage of just .302 (19 Total Bases / 63 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .406 — 84th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
27 of Kyle Freeland’s breaking pitch strikeouts were backdoor in 2022 — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Kyle Freeland threw at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 56% (279/503) of opposing batters in 2022 — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 67% — second Percentile.
Kyle Freeland had a strike rate of just 62% (1,393/2,228) against right-handed batters in 2022 — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — fourth Percentile.
Kyle Freeland allowed an OBP of .342 (765 PA’s) in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — second Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Phillies are 27-106 (.203) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .131.
The Phillies are 7-53 (.117) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Phillies are 20-18 (.526) after a win as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Phillies are 11-6 (.647) after a win as underdogs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .435.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Padres are just 2-10 (.167) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .435.
The Padres are just 2-6 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 14-25 (.359) after a win as underdogs since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Padres are just 14-18 (.438) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .583 over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .427.
Phillies hitters are slugging .589 at home over the last 30 days (17 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .429.
Phillies hitters are slugging .564 over the last 30 days (26 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .947 (475 PA’s) over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .750.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .405 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .452.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 44% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters are averaging 4.01 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 181 of 2,651 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (3,359 batted balls) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,331 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 37% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
The Padres have allowed 2.18 runs per game (303/139) __SPLITSTRING__ this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 2.63.
BASE __basic__ __PTeamId__ __PT__ __BHPct__ __Overall__ PresentPerfect
Padres vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Padres): Rib, D10
- Steven Wilson (Padres): Hip, D15
- Jacob Cronenworth (Padres): Wrist, D10
- Alek Jacob (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Yu Darvish (Padres): Elbow, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
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