- The Phillies are -120 favorites vs the Padres
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael Wacha
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Philadelphia Phillies (-120) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (+100) on Wednesday, September 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Phillies vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 76-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 68-72 ATS.
Phillies vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +145 | O 7.5 -110 | -120 |
| Padres | +1.5 -175 | U 7.5 -110 | +100 |
Phillies vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 55.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 40 of his last 50 games (+19.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+16.45 Units / 42% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 26 games (+11.60 Units / 43% ROI)
- Aaron Nola has hit the Earned Runs Over in 14 of his last 16 away games (+11.50 Units / 58% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 away games (+11.25 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 36 of his last 49 games (+20.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 29 of his last 50 games (+16.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+12.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- Blake Snell has hit the Earned Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+10.20 Units / 16% ROI)
Padres vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
Padres vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
Padres vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -110 |
| Zack Wheeler | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -145 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games (+7.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 33 games (+6.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 38 away games (+5.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 away games (+5.57 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.35 Units / 27% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 133 games (+14.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 48 games at home (+12.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 72 of their last 130 games (+7.95 Units / 5% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.34 Units / 72% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.40 Units / 51% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 60-78 against the Run Line (-25.9 Units / -15.1% ROI).
- 76-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.25 Units / -3.73% ROI
- 59-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.75 Units / -9.76% ROI
- 67-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.3 Units / 1.53% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 68-72 against the Run Line (-7.7 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- 66-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -35 Units / -17.05% ROI
- 57-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.75 Units / -15.87% ROI
- 73-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.85 Units / 7.12% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has walked 9 of 318 right-handed batters (3%) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 95th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an OBP of just .239 (318 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .299 — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (233/527) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 96th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (233/527) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .140 (15 GB hits out of 107 GBs) against Michael Wacha this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .139 (14-for-101) against Michael Wacha when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .253 — 99th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 47% of the time (257/551) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 24% (30/124) against Michael Wacha with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 37% — 98th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Phillies are 27-107 (.201) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .131.
The Phillies are 45-31 (.592) after a win this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Phillies are 7-54 (.115) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Phillies are 78-42 (.650) after a win as favorites since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .596.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Padres are just 2-6 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 2-10 (.167) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .435.
The Padres are just 14-25 (.359) after a win as underdogs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Padres are just 3-58 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .778 (3,378 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Phillies hitters are slugging .445 against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Phillies hitters are slugging .459 against LHP this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .782 (5,510 PA’s) at home since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 146 walks in 1,497 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have chased 28% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Padres hitters have drawn 306 walks in 3,025 PA’s (10%) against starting pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 85 double plays in 935 opportunities (9%) this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 3.61 (611.0 IP) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.25.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 3.45 (670.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.25.
The Padres have allowed 3.76 runs per game (278/74) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.65.
Padres pitchers have walked 52 of 494 batters (10%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Padres): Rib, D10
- Steven Wilson (Padres): Hip, D15
- Jacob Cronenworth (Padres): Wrist, D10
- Alek Jacob (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Yu Darvish (Padres): Elbow, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
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