Phillies vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 28

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 28, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Phillies (51-47) are -200 favorites vs the Pirates (40-58)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler (8-5), 2.78 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Zachary Thompson (3-7), 4.63 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Philadelphia Phillies (-200) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+165) on Thursday, July 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).

The Phillies vs Pirates Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 51-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 50-48 ATS.

Phillies vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 -115O 7.5 +100-200
Pirates +1.5 -105U 7.5 -120+165

Phillies vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s matchup with 51.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+16.40 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 38 away games (+15.45 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 47 games (+14.65 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+13.75 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.45 Units / 54% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 28 of his last 38 games at home (+13.30 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 30 games at home (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 32 games at home (+11.45 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+8.60 Units / 36% ROI)

Pirates vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Cal Mitchell 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Kevin Newman 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000

Pirates vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Cal Mitchell 0.5 -165 0.5 +115
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Kevin Newman 0.5 -250 0.5 +160

Pirates vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Cal Mitchell 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Kevin Newman 0.5 +270 0.5 -450

Pirates vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Zach Thompson 3.5 -135 3.5 -105
Zack Wheeler 6.5 +100 6.5 -140
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 54 of their last 93 games (+12.15 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 47 games (+11.50 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 35 away games (+9.00 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 away games (+7.45 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 away games (+2.10 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 89 games (+10.40 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 34 games (+10.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.25 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+5.05 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games at home (+4.25 Units / 29% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 51-47 against the Run Line (+4.1 Units / 3.44% ROI).

  • 51-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.1 Units / -3.15% ROI
  • 50-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.9 Units / 1.77% ROI
  • 44-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.9 Units / -10.08% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 50-48 against the Run Line (-4.65 Units / -3.74% ROI).

  • 40-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.65 Units / -1.61% ROI
  • 40-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.55 Units / -15.42% ROI
  • 52-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.9 Units / 7.26% ROI

Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (369/839) when behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 96th Percentile.

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.8 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (159 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 80.3

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 79.3 MPH on inside pitches since the start of last season (397 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 85.4

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 84.9 MPH against his fastballs since the start of last season (522 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 90.4

Zachary Thompson: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (15/118) against Zach Thompson with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Zach Thompson has a strikeout rate of just 16% (4 SO in 25 PAs) with two-strikes — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — second Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 68% (26/38) against Zach Thompson — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.

Zach Thompson has a strike rate of just 60% (173/290) when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 69% — 0 Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Phillies are just 1-10 (.091) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 9-35 (.205) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .087.

The Phillies are 25-22 (.532) on the road this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .476.

The Phillies are 10-35 (.222) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Pirates are just 83-21 (.798) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 3-22 (.120) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Pirates are just 3-6 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Pirates are just 38-48 (.442) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .301 (2,577 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.

Phillies hitters have put just 35% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Phillies hitters have drawn 104 walks in 1,097 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Phillies hitters have put just 36% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .281 (779 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .456 (5,047 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.

The Pirates are batting just .203 with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .659 (2,972 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 57 of 873 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .261 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .218.

Phillies pitchers have walked 1 of 55 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 6.66 (73.0 IP) at home this month (8 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.84.

Pirates pitchers have walked 272 of 2,778 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 66% of their games since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 213 of 2,262 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Toe, D10
  • Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): COVID-19, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.