- The Phillies (51-47) are -200 favorites vs the Pirates (40-58)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler (8-5), 2.78 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Zachary Thompson (3-7), 4.63 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Philadelphia Phillies (-200) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+165) on Thursday, July 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).
The Phillies vs Pirates Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 51-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 50-48 ATS.
Phillies vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 -115 | O 7.5 +100 | -200 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -105 | U 7.5 -120 | +165 |
Phillies vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s matchup with 51.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+16.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 38 away games (+15.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 47 games (+14.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+13.75 Units / 86% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.45 Units / 54% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 28 of his last 38 games at home (+13.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 30 games at home (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 32 games at home (+11.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+8.60 Units / 36% ROI)
Pirates vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Cal Mitchell | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Kevin Newman | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
Pirates vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Cal Mitchell | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Kevin Newman | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
Pirates vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Cal Mitchell | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Kevin Newman | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
Pirates vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Thompson | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 -105 |
| Zack Wheeler | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -140 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 54 of their last 93 games (+12.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 47 games (+11.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 35 away games (+9.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 away games (+7.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 away games (+2.10 Units / 23% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 89 games (+10.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 34 games (+10.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+5.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games at home (+4.25 Units / 29% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 51-47 against the Run Line (+4.1 Units / 3.44% ROI).
- 51-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.1 Units / -3.15% ROI
- 50-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.9 Units / 1.77% ROI
- 44-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.9 Units / -10.08% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 50-48 against the Run Line (-4.65 Units / -3.74% ROI).
- 40-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.65 Units / -1.61% ROI
- 40-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.55 Units / -15.42% ROI
- 52-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.9 Units / 7.26% ROI
Zachary Wheeler: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (369/839) when behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 96th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.8 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (159 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 80.3
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 79.3 MPH on inside pitches since the start of last season (397 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 85.4
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 84.9 MPH against his fastballs since the start of last season (522 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 90.4
Zachary Thompson: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (15/118) against Zach Thompson with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Zach Thompson has a strikeout rate of just 16% (4 SO in 25 PAs) with two-strikes — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 68% (26/38) against Zach Thompson — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.
Zach Thompson has a strike rate of just 60% (173/290) when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 69% — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Phillies are just 1-10 (.091) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 9-35 (.205) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Phillies are 25-22 (.532) on the road this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .476.
The Phillies are 10-35 (.222) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Pirates are just 83-21 (.798) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 3-22 (.120) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Pirates are just 3-6 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 38-48 (.442) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .301 (2,577 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Phillies hitters have put just 35% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Phillies hitters have drawn 104 walks in 1,097 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Phillies hitters have put just 36% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .281 (779 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .456 (5,047 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.
The Pirates are batting just .203 with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .659 (2,972 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 57 of 873 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .261 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .218.
Phillies pitchers have walked 1 of 55 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 6.66 (73.0 IP) at home this month (8 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.84.
Pirates pitchers have walked 272 of 2,778 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 66% of their games since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 213 of 2,262 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Toe, D10
- Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): COVID-19, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
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