- The Phillies are -165 favorites vs the Pirates
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Philadelphia Phillies (-165) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+140) on Friday, July 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Phillies vs Pirates Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 55-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 47-55 ATS.
Phillies vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +100 | O 8.5 -115 | -165 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -120 | U 8.5 -105 | +140 |
Phillies vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 71.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+14.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.50 Units / 52% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+12.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.35 Units / 58% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 31 games (+9.55 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jared Triolo has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+14.00 Units / 66% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+11.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 33 games (+9.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+9.40 Units / 47% ROI)
Pirates vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ji-man Choi | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
Pirates vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ji-man Choi | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
Pirates vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ji-man Choi | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
Pirates vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
| Zack Wheeler | 6.5 -150 | 6.5 +115 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 85 games (+12.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 45 games (+11.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 42 away games (+6.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 57 of their last 101 games (+5.75 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 away games (+4.80 Units / 18% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 74 games (+18.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 27 games at home (+12.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+9.80 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+3.75 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 57% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 41-61 against the Run Line (-29 Units / -22.39% ROI).
- 55-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.35 Units / -3.1% ROI
- 40-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.15 Units / -15.24% ROI
- 52-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.3 Units / 7.41% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 47-55 against the Run Line (-22.05 Units / -16.31% ROI).
- 45-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.45 Units / -3.06% ROI
- 52-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.9 Units / 2.59% ROI
- 45-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.8 Units / -10.5% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has walked 23 of 495 batters (5%) this season — tied for 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 92nd Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (571/1,353) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 96th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (2,265/5,179) in non-two strike counts since the 2021 season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (571/1,353) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has allowed a just .244 SLG vs right-handed batters (ninth best)– 90th Percentile and .644 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (fifth worst among qualified SPs)– seventh Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OPS of just .567 (245 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .694 — 96th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a strike rate of 68% (436/639) in two strike counts this season — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 88th Percentile.
42% of Mitch Keller’s strikeouts are looking this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Phillies are 10-5 (.667) after a win as underdogs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .447.
The Phillies are 23-97 (.192) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Phillies are 67-35 (.657) after a win as favorites since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .594.
The Phillies are 43-26 (.623) after a road win since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Pirates are just 89-51 (.636) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Pirates are just 13-122 (.096) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Pirates are just 9-15 (.375) after a home loss this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Pirates are just 5-46 (.098) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .148.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitters have 292 strikeouts in 1,154 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Phillies are batting .173 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .155.
The Phillies are batting .252 with two outs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .298 (3,040 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Pirates are batting just .123 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
The Pirates are batting just .218 with two outs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .504 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.4 MPH (2,398 batted balls) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 946 of 10,138 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 65% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,552 of 16,278 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Back, D10
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pirates): Ankle, D10
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
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