Phillies vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 31

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 31, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The (67-33) are favorites vs the (67-33)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (6-8), 3.32 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker (2-8), 3.96 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Philadelphia Phillies () visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates () on Sunday, July 31, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().

The Phillies vs Pirates Over/Under is total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 54-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 52-49 ATS.

Phillies vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies O
Pirates U

Phillies vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s matchup with 62.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 41 away games (+17.45 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 50 games (+15.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 28 games (+13.95 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 39 away games (+12.45 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.40 Units / 42% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 30 of his last 41 games at home (+13.85 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 35 games at home (+12.00 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 30 games at home (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Ben Gamel has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 16 games at home (+10.10 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 38% ROI)

Pirates vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Kevin Newman 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000
Oneil Cruz 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Alec Bohm 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000

Pirates vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Kevin Newman 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Oneil Cruz 0.5 -140 0.5 +100
Bryson Stott 0.5 -225 0.5 +155

Pirates vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Kevin Newman 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Oneil Cruz 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Alec Bohm 0.5 +185 0.5 -275

Pirates vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Nola 6.5 -145 6.5 +105
JT Brubaker 4.5 -155 4.5 +110
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 38 away games (+12.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 50 games (+10.65 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 54 of their last 96 games (+9.90 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 21 away games (+8.40 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 11 away games (+1.05 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 92 games (+11.35 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 37 games (+10.75 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.30 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+6.05 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 17 games at home (+1.25 Units / 7% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 52-49 against the Run Line (+3.25 Units / 2.65% ROI).

  • 54-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.1 Units / -0.82% ROI
  • 51-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 0.59% ROI
  • 46-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.95 Units / -8.94% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 52-49 against the Run Line (-4.2 Units / -3.27% ROI).

  • 40-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.65 Units / -4.41% ROI
  • 41-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.8 Units / -16.08% ROI
  • 54-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.85 Units / 7.9% ROI

Aaron Nola has allowed a slugging percentage of .600 (48 Total Bases / 80 ABs) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .377 — first Percentile.

Aaron Nola has walked 17 of 514 batters (3%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has walked 6 of 276 right-handed batters (2%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 13.8 (83/6) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.7 — 100th Percentile.

Jonathan Brubaker: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Hitters have swung at 52% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (246/475) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 52% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (530/1,012) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.

JT Brubaker has walked 8 of 47 right-handed batters (17%) this month (3 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.

JT Brubaker has a strike rate of just 58% (276/475) in two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Phillies are 9-35 (.205) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .088.

The Phillies are 11-35 (.239) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .116.

The Phillies are just 3-10 (.231) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 42-2 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .912.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Pirates are just 29-7 (.806) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .884.

The Pirates are just 83-22 (.790) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.

The Pirates are just 3-22 (.120) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.

The Pirates are just 50-113 (.307) on the road since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.

Phillies hitters are slugging .505 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .446.

Phillies hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Phillies hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 376 of their 1,549 plate appearances (24%) versus relief pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Phillies hitters have just 40 strikeouts in 217 PA’s (18%) against LHP this month (18 games) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .283 (1,286 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .454 (5,109 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .658 (3,031 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.

Phillies pitchers have walked 58 of 902 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 150 of 2,327 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Phillies pitchers have allowed a run just 10% of the time after an opposing score this month (24 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Phillies pitchers have allowed a run just 22% of the time after an opposing score this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 215 of 2,291 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 274 of 2,807 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 5.38 (1066.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.

Pirates pitchers have walked 18 of 340 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (9 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Knee, Day-to-Day
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Toe, D10
  • Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): COVID-19, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.