• The Phillies are -175 favorites vs the Pirates
• Phillies vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Phillies / Pirates TV Channel: NSPA | SNPT

The Philadelphia Phillies (-175) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+145) on May 16, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 pm in Pittsburgh, PA.

This season, the Phillies are 22-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 24-20 ATS.

Phillies vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:

• Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez 4-2, 2.10 ERA
• Pirates starting pitcher: Bubba Chandler 1-4, 4.62 ERA

Phillies vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Phillies vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 62.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

• Justin Crawford has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+19.00 Units / 380% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 20 games (+18.00 Units / 46% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+14.40 Units / 64% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+9.00 Units / 112% ROI)
• Cristopher Sanchez has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.50 Units / 76% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Walks Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+17.10 Units / 68% ROI)
• Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+16.00 Units / 160% ROI)
• Konnor Griffin has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+13.00 Units / 130% ROI)
• Oneil Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+11.90 Units / 24% ROI)
• Konnor Griffin has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+11.35 Units / 51% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 away games (+10.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 away games (+9.85 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games (+7.75 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 away games (+3.20 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 23 games (+3.00 Units / 12% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games at home (+10.75 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+8.10 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 50 games at home (+6.90 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.05 Units / 27% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 13-32 against the Run Line (-22.1 Units / -41.86% ROI).

• 22-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.85 Units / -11.91% ROI
• 23-20 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.05 Units / 2.11% ROI
• 20-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -5 Units / -10.15% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 24-20 against the Run Line (+4.2 Units / 7.39% ROI).

• 24-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.75 Units / -2.97% ROI
• 25-19 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.7 Units / 7.38% ROI
• 19-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.25 Units / -16.89% ROI

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Phillies are just 4-13 (.235) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season Today, they face the Pirates (fifth in runs scored).

The Phillies are just 1-12 (.077) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .299.

The Phillies are just 3-9 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .372.

The Phillies are 11-3 (.786) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .628.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Pirates are 15-5 (.750) after a loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .479.

The Pirates are just 0-15 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.

The Pirates are just 2-18 (.100) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

The Pirates are just 1-12 (.077) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends

Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .277 (799 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

Phillies hitters are slugging just .215 against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

Phillies hitters have drawn walks in 5% of their PA’s when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Phillies are batting just .156 with two-strikes this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB.

Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends

Pirates hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 544 of their 1,785 plate appearances (30%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of .754 (1,291 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of .346 (1,291 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB.

The Pirates are batting .282 at home this season — best in MLB.

Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends

Phillies pitchers have walked 8% of batters this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 23 double plays in 372 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB.

Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends

Pirates pitchers have allowed 36 home runs this season — tied for 2nd fewest in MLB.

The longest HR allowed by the Pirates pitchers this season traveled 436.6 feet — — 4th shortest in MLB

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .217 against Pirates pitchers this season — tied for 4th best in MLB.

Opponents are hitting just .225 against Pirates pitchers this season — tied for 5th best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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