- The Rangers are -125 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies starting pitcher: Bailey Falter
- Rangers starting pitcher: Martín Pérez
- Watch the game on ESPN
The Philadelphia Phillies (+105) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (-125) on Sunday, April 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08pm EDT in Arlington.
The Rangers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Phillies vs Rangers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 0-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 2-0 ATS.
Phillies vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 -115 | +105 |
| Rangers | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -105 | -125 |
Phillies vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 65.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+4.05 Units / 203% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.35 Units / 89% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.50 Units / 125% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Eli White has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Brad Miller has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Eli White has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 games (+2.20 Units / 107% ROI)
- Jonah Heim has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+2.10 Units / 210% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
Rangers vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Mitch Garver | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
Rangers vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Mitch Garver | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
Rangers vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Mitch Garver | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Rangers vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Perez | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
| Bailey Falter | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 61 away games (+24.08 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.83 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+6.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 98 of their last 181 games (+0.80 Units / 0% ROI)
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 83 games at home (+7.65 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 89 of their last 164 games (+4.25 Units / 2% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 3 games (+3.70 Units / 114% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 0-2 against the Run Line (-2.9 Units / -100% ROI).
- 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.25 Units / -100% ROI
- 2-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +2 Units / 85.11% ROI
- 0-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.05 Units / -100% ROI
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 2-0 against the Run Line (+2.65 Units / 103.92% ROI).
- 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.05 Units / 85.42% ROI
- 2-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +2 Units / 85.11% ROI
- 0-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.05 Units / -100% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter located 46% of his pitches inside (477/1,033) against right-handed batters in 2022 — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.
Bailey Falter had an average spin rate of 1915.4 RPM on fastballs in 2022 — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 2229.2 — second Percentile.
32% of Bailey Falter’s strikeouts were looking against right-handed batters in 2022 — 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 90th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 33% (83/252) against Bailey Falter in 2022 — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters swung at 53% of Martin Perez’s pitches (404/767) with two-strikes in 2022 — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a swing rate of just 44% (1,091/2,504) against Martin Perez in 2022 — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 52% (297/576) against Martin Perez in 2022 — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 91st Percentile.
Martin Perez walked 69 of 821 batters (8%) in 2022 — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 10th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Phillies were 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are just 22-55 (.286) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2021 season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .347.
The Phillies are 50-8 (.862) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2021 season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .809.
The Phillies are 8-129 (.058) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Rangers were just 53-11 (.828) when leading entering the 8th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Rangers are just 100-16 (.862) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Rangers are just 30-46 (.395) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .539.
The Rangers are just 37-38 (.493) when scoring in the first inning since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .653.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters slugged .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
The Phillies batted .176 on pitches out of the zone in 2022 — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .157.
Phillies hitters had an OPS of .771 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP in 2022 — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Phillies hitters slugged .237 on pitches out of the zone in 2022 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters had an OBP of just .295 (4,219 PA’s) against RHP in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .296 (8,250 PA’s) against RHP since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Rangers hitters had a swing rate of 37% on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Rangers hitters slugged .529 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers in 2022 — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .256 against Phillies pitchers with the shift in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Phillies pitchers had allowed a run just 24% of the time after an opposing score in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers walked 139 of 1,440 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Rangers pitchers walked 581 of 6,167 batters (9%) in 2022 — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Rangers have won just 26% of games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Rangers pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 53% of their games on the road in 2022 — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Rangers vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Leody Taveras (Rangers): Oblique, D10
- Jacob Odorizzi (Rangers): Leg, D60
- Glenn Otto (Rangers): Lat, D60
- Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Spencer Howard (Rangers): Lat, D15
- Joshua Sborz (Rangers): Ankle, D15
- Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Nicholas Nelson (Phillies): Hamstring, D15
- Cristopher Sánchez (Phillies): Left Tricep, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Elbow, D10
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