Phillies vs Rangers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 21

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 21, 2022, 10:35 AM
  • The Phillies (36-32) are +100 favorites vs the Rangers (31-35)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson (4-2), 4.03 ERA
  • Rangers starting pitcher: Martín Pérez (4-2), 2.10 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSW

The Philadelphia Phillies (+100) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (-120) on Tuesday, June 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Arlington.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).

The Phillies vs Rangers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 36-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 39-27 ATS.

Phillies vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 +165O 7.5 +100+100
Rangers +1.5 -200U 7.5 -120-120

Phillies vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 69.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Rangers vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 away games (+7.20 Units / 66% ROI)
  • J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+6.25 Units / 51% ROI)
  • J.T. Realmuto has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 13 away games (+5.00 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Matt Vierling has hit the Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+3.95 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.55 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Adolis Garcia has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+9.25 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Adolis Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.00 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Nate Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+7.35 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Marcus Semien has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+6.60 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Adolis Garcia has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.30 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Rangers vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Adolis Garcia 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
    Adolis Garcia 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
    Brad Miller 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
    Corey Seager 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
    Ezequiel Duran 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600

    Rangers vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Adolis Garcia 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
    Brad Miller 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
    Corey Seager 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
    Ezequiel Duran 0.5 -140 0.5 +100
    Jonah Heim 0.5 -175 0.5 +125

    Rangers vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Adolis Garcia 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
    Brad Miller 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
    Corey Seager 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
    Ezequiel Duran 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
    Jonah Heim 0.5 +190 0.5 -275

    Rangers vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Martin Perez 4.5 -105 4.5 -135
    Kyle Gibson 4.5 -140 4.5 +100
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 23 of their last 32 away games (+12.85 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 23 away games (+12.35 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 18 games (+10.55 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games (+7.25 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 18 games (+0.85 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 55 games (+15.95 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 46 games (+7.15 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 53 games (+4.90 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games at home (+4.60 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 46 games (+1.23 Units / 2% ROI)
  • Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 34-34 against the Run Line (-0.15 Units / -0.18% ROI).

    • 36-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.55 Units / -2.75% ROI
    • 39-27 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.35 Units / 12.43% ROI
    • 27-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.6 Units / -20.93% ROI

    Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 39-27 against the Run Line (+8 Units / 9.18% ROI).

    • 31-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.65 Units / -0.9% ROI
    • 28-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.95 Units / -6.78% ROI
    • 30-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.85 Units / -1.17% ROI

    Kyle Gibson has struck out just 14% (19/132) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — eighth Percentile.

    Opponents are hitting .340 (16-for-47) against Kyle Gibson with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — fourth Percentile.

    Kyle Gibson has a strikeout rate of 26% (15 SO in 58 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 95th Percentile.

    Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (14/83) against Kyle Gibson on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — ninth Percentile.

    Martín Pérez: Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

    Opponents are hitting just .153 (9-for-59) against Martin Perez on inside fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .264 — 96th Percentile.

    Martin Perez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .186 (11 Total Bases / 59 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .422 — 98th Percentile.

    Martin Perez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .317 (20 Total Bases / 63 ABs) when behind in the count this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .564 — 96th Percentile.

    Martin Perez has a strikeout rate of just 20% (14 SO in 70 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — fourth Percentile.

    Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers

    The Phillies are 8-24 (.250) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .073.

    The Phillies are 7-23 (.233) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .098.

    The Phillies are just 25-4 (.862) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .902.

    The Phillies are just 11-18 (.379) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

    Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

    The Rangers are just 22-6 (.786) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .927.

    The Rangers are 17-3 (.850) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .720.

    The Rangers are just 10-21 (.323) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

    The Rangers are 6-26 (.188) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .098.

    The Phillies are 8-24 (.250) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .073.

    Phillies hitters are slugging .421 this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .392.

    Phillies hitters are slugging .440 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .385.

    Phillies hitters have an OPS of .785 (805 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.

    Rangers hitters have drawn 180 walks in 2,646 PA’s (7%) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

    Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .292 (10,547 PA’s) since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.

    Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .295 (2,646 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

    Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .289 (4,318 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .309.

    Opponents have a groundball batting average of .278 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .213.

    Opponents have a groundball batting average of .254 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.

    Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

    Opponents have a groundball batting average of .263 against Phillies pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: .234.

    Rangers pitchers have walked 60 of 589 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

    Rangers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

    Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Rangers pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

    The Rangers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

    Rangers vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Elijah White (Rangers): Wrist, D10
  • Mitchell Garver (Rangers): COVID-19, D10
  • Josh H. Smith (Rangers): Shoulder, D10
  • Jonathan Hernández (Rangers): Elbow, D60
  • Glenn Otto (Rangers): COVID-19, D10
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Blister, Day-to-Day

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.