- The Rangers are -140 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola, – ERA
- Rangers starting pitcher: Jacob deGrom, – ERA
- Watch the game on BSSW
The Philadelphia Phillies (+115) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (-140) on Thursday, March 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Arlington.
The Rangers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Phillies vs Rangers Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 10-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 9-13 ATS.
Phillies vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -190 | O 6.5 +100 | +115 |
| Rangers | -1.5 +155 | U 6.5 -120 | -140 |
Phillies vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 64.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Phillies vs Rangers and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- player high – away
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- player high – home
Rangers vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Adolis Garcia | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jonah Heim | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Brad Miller | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
Rangers vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -120 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +145 |
| Adolis Garcia | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jonah Heim | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 -110 |
| Brad Miller | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -120 |
Rangers vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Adolis Garcia | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jonah Heim | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Brad Miller | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
Rangers vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Degrom | 7.5 -145 | 7.5 +105 |
| Aaron Nola | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +100 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 61 away games (+24.08 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 129 games (+16.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 61 away games (+8.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.83 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 70 of their last 128 games (+7.70 Units / 5% ROI)
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+11.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 151 games (+9.55 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 3 games (+3.70 Units / 114% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 9-15 against the Run Line (-7.55 Units / -25.25% ROI).
- 10-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.1 Units / -14.54% ROI
- 16-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.05 Units / 26.65% ROI
- 8-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.6 Units / -36.23% ROI
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 9-13 against the Run Line (-3.85 Units / -14.34% ROI).
- 9-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -8.29% ROI
- 10-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.2 Units / -9.07% ROI
- 11-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.15 Units / 0.62% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola had a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (582/836) last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola walked 30 of 832 batters (4%) last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 97th Percentile.
Aaron Nola walked 7 of 299 batters (2%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola struck out 52 batters on three pitches last season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .152 (85-for-561) against Jacob deGrom since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 100th Percentile.
Jacob deGrom has allowed an OBP of just .183 (586 PA’s) since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .303 — 100th Percentile.
Jacob deGrom had a strikeout rate of 42% (110/264) last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 42% (519/1,245) against Jacob deGrom since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 47-34 (.580) at home last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Rangers are just 53-11 (.828) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Rangers are just 65-82 (.442) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Rangers are 11-8 (.579) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rangers are just 4-75 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters had an OBP of .338 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Phillies batted .266 against LHP last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Phillies hitters slugged .237 on pitches out of the zone last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Phillies hitters are slugging .496 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .301 (3,722 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Rangers hitters had an OPS of .925 (376 PA’s) against pitchers who had thrown at least 80 pitches in a game last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
Rangers hitters had a swing rate of 37% on the first pitch of at-bats last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Rangers hitters have drawn 309 walks in 4,407 PA’s (7%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 186 of 2,865 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .256 against Phillies pitchers with the shift last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers walked 139 of 1,440 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Rangers pitchers last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rangers pitchers walked 581 of 6,167 batters (9%) last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rangers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 51% of their games last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rangers vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Leody Taveras (Rangers): Oblique, D10
- Jacob Odorizzi (Rangers): Leg, D60
- Glenn Otto (Rangers): Lat, D60
- Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Spencer Howard (Rangers): Lat, D15
- Joshua Sborz (Rangers): Ankle, D15
- Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Nicholas Nelson (Phillies): Hamstring, D15
- Cristopher Sánchez (Phillies): Left Tricep, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Elbow, D10
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