- The Rays are -150 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
- Rays starting pitcher: Zachary Eflin
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Philadelphia Phillies (+125) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-150) on Tuesday, July 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Phillies vs Rays Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 44-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 48-39 ATS.
Phillies vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -160 | O 8 -110 | +125 |
| Rays | -1.5 +135 | U 8 -110 | -150 |
Phillies vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 66.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 37 games (+15.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Zack Wheeler has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.10 Units / 64% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 17 away games (+7.80 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luke Raley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+14.35 Units / 63% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+11.65 Units / 76% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- Francisco Mejia has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+8.30 Units / 32% ROI)
Rays vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
Rays vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Yandy Diaz | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
Rays vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Rays vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Eflin | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -110 |
| Aaron Nola | 6.5 -135 | 6.5 +105 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 66 games (+14.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 12 away games (+9.80 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 33 away games (+8.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 26 games (+7.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games (+7.40 Units / 19% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 55 of their last 87 games (+19.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 43 games at home (+19.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 44 games at home (+17.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 41 games at home (+14.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 44 games at home (+14.30 Units / 25% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 34-49 against the Run Line (-22.25 Units / -21.25% ROI).
- 44-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.5 Units / -5.56% ROI
- 31-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.35 Units / -18.97% ROI
- 44-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.2 Units / 11.18% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 48-39 against the Run Line (+9.75 Units / 9.47% ROI).
- 57-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.25 Units / 10% ROI
- 49-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.3 Units / 11.79% ROI
- 34-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.05 Units / -20.98% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 38% of the time (112/297) when he’s behind in the count this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 93rd Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 30% of the time (241/796) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Aaron Nola had a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (566/811) in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed an OPS of 1.465 (67 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.070 — fifth Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Eflin allowed a batting average of .272 vs right-handed batters (ninth worst)– 13th Percentile and just .188 vs left-handed batters this season (third best among qualified SPs)– 95th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .188 (31-for-165) against Zach Eflin this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .248 — 95th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 75.1 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (100 balls in play) — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Zach Eflin had a strike rate of 81% (67/83) — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Phillies are 17-17 (.500) after a win as underdogs since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Phillies are just 7-14 (.333) after a road loss this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Phillies are 15-8 (.652) after a road win this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .488.
The Phillies are 34-3 (.919) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .855.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Rays are 34-10 (.773) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .522.
The Rays are 57-30 (.655) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 10-2 (.833) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .503.
The Rays are 46-2 (.958) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .895.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of just .510 (115 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the last 14 days (11 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Phillies hitters have drawn 60 walks in 955 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .742 (9,244 PA’s) since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays have a winning percentage of 77% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Rays hitters are slugging .480 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Rays have a winning percentage of 66% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters are slugging .535 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .440.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Phillies have won just 10% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 144 of 2,164 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 50 of 733 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 666 of 9,136 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Rays pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Rays pitchers have won 59% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Rays vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Shane McClanahan (Rays): Back, D15
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Seranthony DomÃnguez (Phillies): Oblique, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
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