- The Rays are -130 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker
- Rays starting pitcher: Zack Littell
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Philadelphia Phillies (+110) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-130) on Wednesday, July 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Phillies vs Rays Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 45-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 48-40 ATS.
Phillies vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -175 | O 9 -105 | +110 |
| Rays | -1.5 +145 | U 9 -115 | -130 |
Phillies vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 59.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+12.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 away games (+11.25 Units / 41% ROI)
- Zack Wheeler has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+10.10 Units / 66% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 away games (+8.35 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luke Raley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+13.35 Units / 56% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+10.65 Units / 65% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 28 games (+8.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- Zach Eflin has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.75 Units / 66% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 16 games at home (+8.50 Units / 26% ROI)
Rays vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Brandon Lowe | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Rays vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Yandy Diaz | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Brandon Lowe | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Rays vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Brandon Lowe | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Rays vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Taijuan Walker | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 67 games (+15.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 13 away games (+11.05 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 27 games (+8.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 26 games (+8.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 34 away games (+6.80 Units / 17% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 55 of their last 88 games (+18.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 44 games at home (+18.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 45 games at home (+15.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 42 games at home (+13.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 45 games at home (+13.20 Units / 23% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 35-49 against the Run Line (-21.25 Units / -19.98% ROI).
- 45-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.25 Units / -4.45% ROI
- 31-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.5 Units / -19.98% ROI
- 45-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.2 Units / 12.13% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 48-40 against the Run Line (+8.75 Units / 8.42% ROI).
- 57-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.8 Units / 8.89% ROI
- 49-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.15 Units / 10.46% ROI
- 35-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.05 Units / -19.72% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Taijuan Walker has a strike rate of just 58% (245/421) in two strike counts this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has a strike rate of just 62% (887/1,438) this season — tied for 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — seventh Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 18% (62/348) against Taijuan Walker this season — tied for 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — sixth Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 53% of Taijuan Walker’s pitches (223/421) with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 60% — first Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .333 (28-for-84) against Zack Littell when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: .229 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .244 (11-for-45) against Zack Littell on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — tied for 5th best among in MLB; League Avg: .329 — 94th Percentile.
Zack Littell has allowed an OPS of .999 (95 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: .670 — first Percentile.
Zack Littell has allowed an OPS of 1.002 (165 PA’s) versus the top of the order since the 2021 season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: .726 — first Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Phillies are 16-90 (.151) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Phillies are just 29-35 (.453) after a loss as favorites since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .590.
The Phillies are just 9-16 (.360) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 62-32 (.660) after a win as favorites since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .594.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Rays are 37-20 (.649) after a win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Rays are 14-11 (.560) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Rays are 54-25 (.684) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Rays are 46-2 (.958) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .896.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Phillies are batting .255 since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Phillies are batting .262 against LHP since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Phillies are batting .283 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters are slugging .479 against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Rays have a winning percentage of 76% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Rays hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
The Rays have a winning percentage of 65% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 53% against Phillies pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies have won just 10% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Phillies pitchers over the last 14 days (11 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Rays pitchers have walked 666 of 9,171 batters (7%) since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have won 38% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rays pitchers have walked 145 of 2,220 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Shane McClanahan (Rays): Back, D15
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Seranthony DomÃnguez (Phillies): Oblique, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
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