- The Red Sox are -155 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies starting pitcher: Bailey Falter
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck
- Watch the game on ESPN
The Philadelphia Phillies (+130) visit JetBlue Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-155) on Thursday, March 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 12:05pm EST in Fort Myers.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Phillies vs Red Sox Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Phillies are 2-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 4-1 ATS.
Phillies vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -145 | O 11 -110 | +130 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +120 | U 11 -110 | -155 |
Phillies vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s Spring Training matchup with 58.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.35 Units / 89% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+3.05 Units / 102% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the RBIs Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+2.05 Units / 13% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Yolmer Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jaylin Davis has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+3.25 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jaylin Davis has hit the Hits Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.75 Units / 92% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 61 away games (+24.08 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 129 games (+16.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 61 away games (+8.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.83 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 70 of their last 128 games (+7.70 Units / 5% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 45 of their last 80 games (+9.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 133 games (+7.30 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+6.10 Units / 18% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 3-0 against the Run Line (+3.9 Units / 114.71% ROI).
- 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 57.97% ROI
- 2-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.75 Units / 20.55% ROI
- 1-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.95 Units / -31.67% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 4-1 against the Run Line (+3.4 Units / 53.54% ROI).
- 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.35 Units / 57.76% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.25 Units / -4.5% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.15 Units / -2.75% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 33% (83/252) against Bailey Falter last season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.
Bailey Falter had an average spin rate of 1915.4 RPM on fastballs last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 2228.5 — third Percentile.
Bailey Falter located 46% of his pitches inside (477/1,033) against right-handed batters last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.
Bailey Falter threw fastballs 65% of the time (673/1,033) against right-handed batters last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 97th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
8 of Tanner Houck’s 29 breaking pitch strikeouts (28%) were backdoor last season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 11% — 95th Percentile.
Tanner Houck had a first-pitch strike rate of just 52% (127/244) last season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Tanner Houck walked 14 of 101 left-handed batters (14%) last season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 9% — fifth Percentile.
42% of Tanner Houck’s fastball strikeouts were located inside last season — 11th highest among among 123 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 28% — 91st Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 72-5 (.935) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Red Sox are just 4-65 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Red Sox are just 5-63 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Red Sox are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 9-11 (.450) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters slugged .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies hitters had an OBP of .338 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Phillies batted .266 against LHP last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .333 (4,323 PA’s) against LHP since the start of 2020 — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox batted .258 last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox batted .272 at home last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Red Sox are batting .259 since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .256 against Phillies pitchers with the shift last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .248 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of the 2021 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 5.24 (663.1 IP) against division opponents last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
The Red Sox pitchers allowed 357 barreled balls last season — tied for 2nd most in MLB.
The Red Sox have won 40% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Red Sox pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.1 MPH (4,136 batted balls) last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.
Red Sox vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
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