- The Reds are -135 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies starting pitcher: Bailey Falter
- Reds starting pitcher: Nicholas Lodolo
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Philadelphia Phillies (+115) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-135) on Thursday, April 13, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Reds are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Phillies vs Reds Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 4-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 8-3 ATS.
Phillies vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -175 | O 9 -110 | +115 |
| Reds | -1.5 +145 | U 9 -110 | -135 |
Phillies vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 48.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in his last 9 games (+10.30 Units / 110% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 9 games (+10.15 Units / 89% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 away games (+8.60 Units / 60% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.70 Units / 69% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+9.10 Units / 83% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.30 Units / 81% ROI)
- Jason Vosler has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.15 Units / 59% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)
Reds vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Curt Casali | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
Reds vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Curt Casali | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
Reds vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Curt Casali | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Reds vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.90 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.95 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.90 Units / 30% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.35 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 5 games at home (+5.45 Units / 97% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 4 games at home (+4.15 Units / 85% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 92% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 4-8 against the Run Line (-5.8 Units / -37.18% ROI).
- 4-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.45 Units / -39.45% ROI
- 6-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.65 Units / -4.81% ROI
- 6-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.35 Units / -2.71% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 8-3 against the Run Line (+5.35 Units / 39.93% ROI).
- 4-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.6 Units / -21.4% ROI
- 7-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 23.01% ROI
- 4-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.7 Units / -30.2% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 12% (4/32) against Bailey Falter this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Bailey Falter has a strikeout rate of just 25% (5 SO in 20 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — third Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 16% (10/63) against Bailey Falter this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — eighth Percentile.
Bailey Falter has a strikeout rate of just 12% (5 SO in 40 PAs) this season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (37/96) against Nick Lodolo this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has a strikeout rate of 41% (21 SO in 51 PAs) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has a strikeout rate of 59% (10 SO in 17 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 96th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has a strikeout rate of 62% (21 SO in 34 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 96th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Phillies were just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 21-18 (.538) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies were 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Reds were just 14-24 (.368) when scoring in the first inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Reds were just 17-21 (.447) when hitting 2 or more home runs in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Reds are just 16-27 (.372) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .658.
The Reds are just 19-22 (.463) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
36% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .539 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .446.
The Phillies are batting .330 on breaking pitches this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Phillies hitters slugged .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Reds hitters slugged just .485 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Reds hitters have an OBP of just .299 (4,651 PA’s) against RHP since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Reds hitters slugged just .366 against RHP in 2022 — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 49 of 422 batters (12%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .260 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 195 of 2,950 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 1,271 of 12,810 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers walked 612 of 6,220 batters (10%) in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 269 of 2,956 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 654 of 6,611 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
- Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D10
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10
- Luke Weaver (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D15
- Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Nicholas Nelson (Phillies): Hamstring, D15
- Cristopher Sánchez (Phillies): Left Tricep, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Elbow, D10
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