Phillies vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Apr 13

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 13, 2023, 3:30 PM
  • The Reds are -135 favorites vs the Phillies
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Bailey Falter
  • Reds starting pitcher: Nicholas Lodolo
  • Watch the game on BSOH

The Philadelphia Phillies (+115) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-135) on Thursday, April 13, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Reds are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Phillies vs Reds Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

This season, the Phillies are 4-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 8-3 ATS.

Phillies vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies+1.5 -175O 9 -110+115
Reds -1.5 +145U 9 -110-135

Phillies vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 48.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Phillies vs Reds and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in his last 9 games (+10.30 Units / 110% ROI)
  • Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 9 games (+10.15 Units / 89% ROI)
  • Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 away games (+8.60 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.70 Units / 69% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+9.10 Units / 83% ROI)
  • TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.30 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Jason Vosler has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.15 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Tyler Stephenson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)

Reds vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
TJ Friedl 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Tyler Stephenson 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Jonathan India 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Curt Casali 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Edmundo Sosa 0.5 +675 0.5 -2500

Reds vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
TJ Friedl 0.5 -150 0.5 +115
Tyler Stephenson 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
Jonathan India 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
Curt Casali 0.5 -130 0.5 +100
Edmundo Sosa 0.5 -155 0.5 +115

Reds vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
TJ Friedl 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Tyler Stephenson 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Jonathan India 0.5 +220 0.5 -300
Curt Casali 0.5 +195 0.5 -275
Edmundo Sosa 0.5 +230 0.5 -350

Reds vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bailey Falter 4.5 -110 4.5 -120
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.90 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.45 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.95 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.95 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.90 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.35 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 5 games at home (+5.45 Units / 97% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.50 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 4 games at home (+4.15 Units / 85% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 92% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 4-8 against the Run Line (-5.8 Units / -37.18% ROI).

  • 4-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.45 Units / -39.45% ROI
  • 6-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.65 Units / -4.81% ROI
  • 6-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.35 Units / -2.71% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 8-3 against the Run Line (+5.35 Units / 39.93% ROI).

  • 4-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.6 Units / -21.4% ROI
  • 7-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 23.01% ROI
  • 4-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.7 Units / -30.2% ROI

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 12% (4/32) against Bailey Falter this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.

Bailey Falter has a strikeout rate of just 25% (5 SO in 20 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — third Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 16% (10/63) against Bailey Falter this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — eighth Percentile.

Bailey Falter has a strikeout rate of just 12% (5 SO in 40 PAs) this season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.

Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (37/96) against Nick Lodolo this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.

Nick Lodolo has a strikeout rate of 41% (21 SO in 51 PAs) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.

Nick Lodolo has a strikeout rate of 59% (10 SO in 17 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 96th Percentile.

Nick Lodolo has a strikeout rate of 62% (21 SO in 34 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 96th Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Phillies were just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 21-18 (.538) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .420.

The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies were 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Reds were just 14-24 (.368) when scoring in the first inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Reds were just 17-21 (.447) when hitting 2 or more home runs in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Reds are just 16-27 (.372) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .658.

The Reds are just 19-22 (.463) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .711.

36% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

Phillies hitters are slugging .539 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .446.

The Phillies are batting .330 on breaking pitches this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .214.

Phillies hitters slugged .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.

The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Reds hitters slugged just .485 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.

Reds hitters have an OBP of just .299 (4,651 PA’s) against RHP since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .311.

Reds hitters slugged just .366 against RHP in 2022 — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.

Phillies pitchers have walked 49 of 422 batters (12%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .260 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 195 of 2,950 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,271 of 12,810 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers walked 612 of 6,220 batters (10%) in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 269 of 2,956 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 654 of 6,611 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
  • Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D10
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10
  • Luke Weaver (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D15
  • Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Elbow, D15
  • Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D10
  • Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
  • Nicholas Nelson (Phillies): Hamstring, D15
  • Cristopher Sánchez (Phillies): Left Tricep, D15
  • Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
  • Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Elbow, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.