- The Phillies are -150 favorites vs the Reds
- Phillies starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker
- Reds starting pitcher: Connor Overton
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Philadelphia Phillies (-150) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+125) on Friday, April 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Phillies vs Reds Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 4-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 9-3 ATS.
Phillies vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +105 | O 10 -115 | -150 |
| Reds | +1.5 -125 | U 10 -105 | +125 |
Phillies vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 62.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in his last 10 games (+11.30 Units / 106% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 10 games (+11.15 Units / 81% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 away games (+9.60 Units / 56% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+10.10 Units / 83% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.30 Units / 81% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.15 Units / 60% ROI)
- Jason Vosler has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 56% ROI)
Reds vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
Reds vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Reds vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Reds vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Overton | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +105 |
| Taijuan Walker | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +115 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.90 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in their last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.70 Units / 11% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games (+8.05 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.65 Units / 101% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.55 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.15 Units / 81% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 90% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 4-9 against the Run Line (-7.8 Units / -44.32% ROI).
- 4-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.5 Units / -43.1% ROI
- 6-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.7 Units / -11.68% ROI
- 7-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.65 Units / 4.63% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 9-3 against the Run Line (+7.05 Units / 48.96% ROI).
- 5-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.6 Units / -12.03% ROI
- 7-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.7 Units / 13.08% ROI
- 5-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.7 Units / -20.15% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 74% (17/23) against Taijuan Walker this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has a strike rate of just 54% (274/504) on sliders since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: 64% — fourth Percentile.
Hitters chased just 83 of Taijuan Walker’s 387 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 21%) in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 32% — first Percentile.
Taijuan Walker had a strike rate of just 55% (260/476) on sliders in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 42% (18/43) against Connor Overton this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .409 (9-for-22) against Connor Overton’s non-fastballs this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .232 — third Percentile.
Connor Overton struck out just 3% (1/30) of left-handed batters he faced over the last 30 days of the regular season (4 games) — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Connor Overton has allowed an OBP of .462 (39 PA’s) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .325 — first Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Phillies are 15-62 (.195) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Phillies were 19-15 (.559) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Phillies were just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are just 15-21 (.417) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Reds were just 14-24 (.368) when scoring in the first inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Reds are just 15-26 (.366) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .544.
The Reds are just 16-27 (.372) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .658.
The Reds were just 17-21 (.447) when hitting 2 or more home runs in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
34% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .542 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .359 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Phillies hitters have 81 strikeouts in 288 PA’s (28%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .302 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.
The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Reds hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 16% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Reds are batting just .321 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 195 of 2,968 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 56 of 501 batters (11%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 1,276 of 12,883 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .299 against Reds pitchers with runners on base in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Reds pitchers have walked 659 of 6,684 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,457 of 14,699 batters (10%) since the 2020 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10
- Luke Weaver (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D15
- Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Nicholas Nelson (Phillies): Hamstring, D15
- Cristopher Sánchez (Phillies): Left Tricep, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Elbow, D10
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