- The Phillies are -115 favorites vs the Reds
- Phillies starting pitcher: Matthew Strahm
- Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Philadelphia Phillies (-115) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-105) on Saturday, April 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Phillies vs Reds Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 5-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 9-4 ATS.
Phillies vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +140 | O 9.5 -110 | -115 |
| Reds | +1.5 -165 | U 9.5 -110 | -105 |
Phillies vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 67.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Phillies vs Reds and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 11 games (+12.25 Units / 82% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 away games (+11.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.90 Units / 81% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.40 Units / 69% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.15 Units / 62% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+9.10 Units / 69% ROI)
- Jason Vosler has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.10 Units / 62% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.90 Units / 39% ROI)
Reds vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Curt Casali | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Garrett Stubbs | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Reds vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Curt Casali | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -135 |
| Garrett Stubbs | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Reds vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Curt Casali | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Garrett Stubbs | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Reds vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Strahm | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Graham Ashcraft | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 3 of their last 4 away games (+2.20 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.70 Units / 23% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.65 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.15 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 60% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 5-9 against the Run Line (-6.75 Units / -36.29% ROI).
- 5-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.5 Units / -34.39% ROI
- 7-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.7 Units / -4.47% ROI
- 7-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.45 Units / -2.97% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 9-4 against the Run Line (+5.8 Units / 37.06% ROI).
- 5-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.6 Units / -18.18% ROI
- 8-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.7 Units / 19.15% ROI
- 5-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.8 Units / -26.21% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (17/103) against Matt Strahm since last season — tied for 7th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 94th Percentile.
Matt Strahm has thrown inside pitches 52% of the time (70/136) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 35% (36/103) against Matt Strahm since last season — 8th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — eighth Percentile.
51% of Matt Strahm’s fastball strikeouts are located out of the zone since last season — 14th highest among among 144 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 38% — 90th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting just .045 (1-for-22) against Graham Ashcraft this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .242 — 98th Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft allowed a batting average of .360 vs right-handed batters (sixth worst)– seventh Percentile and just .045 vs left-handed batters this season (second best among qualified SPs)– 98th Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft allowed a batting average of .360 vs right-handed batters (sixth worst)– seventh Percentile and just .045 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (second best among qualified SPs)– 98th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 62% (107/173) against Graham Ashcraft since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Phillies are 15-64 (.190) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Phillies are 12-65 (.156) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 48-22 (.686) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Reds are just 19-22 (.463) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The Reds are just 17-28 (.378) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .653.
The Reds are just 56-6 (.903) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .955.
The Reds are just 16-26 (.381) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .544.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .355 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .251.
Phillies hitters are slugging .542 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
33% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
The Phillies are batting .228 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .301 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.
Reds hitters are slugging just .317 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Reds hitters are slugging just .485 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .562.
Reds hitters have an OBP of just .289 (3,231 PA’s) on the road since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 60 of 539 batters (11%) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .261 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 6.27 (66.0 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.56.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 663 of 6,728 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .349 against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .307 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,280 of 12,927 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10
- Luke Weaver (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D15
- Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Nicholas Nelson (Phillies): Hamstring, D15
- Cristopher Sánchez (Phillies): Left Tricep, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Elbow, D10
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