- The Phillies are -200 favorites vs the Reds
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
- Reds starting pitcher: Luis Cessa
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Philadelphia Phillies (-200) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+165) on Sunday, April 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).
The Phillies vs Reds Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 5-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 10-4 ATS.
Phillies vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 -125 | O 11 -190 | -200 |
| Reds | +1.5 +105 | U 11 +155 | +165 |
Phillies vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 66.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 12 games (+13.45 Units / 85% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+10.05 Units / 53% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.70 Units / 65% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+6.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.50 Units / 56% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.15 Units / 64% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+10.10 Units / 71% ROI)
- Jason Vosler has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.30 Units / 67% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+7.90 Units / 41% ROI)
Reds vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jake Fraley | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Reds vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jake Fraley | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Reds vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jake Fraley | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Reds vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -125 |
| Luis Cessa | 3.5 +125 | 3.5 -160 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.85 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.25 Units / 3% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+8.55 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.65 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.15 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 64% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 5-10 against the Run Line (-8.85 Units / -42.75% ROI).
- 5-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.65 Units / -38.15% ROI
- 8-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.3 Units / 1.79% ROI
- 7-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.5 Units / -9.26% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 10-4 against the Run Line (+7.55 Units / 45.35% ROI).
- 6-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.6 Units / -10.42% ROI
- 9-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.7 Units / 24.26% ROI
- 5-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.85 Units / -31.19% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .324 (11-for-34) against Aaron Nola with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .173 — third Percentile.
Aaron Nola has walked 8 of 314 batters (3%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has walked 32 of 874 batters (4%) since last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .333 (9-for-27) against Aaron Nola’s non-fastballs this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .226 — 11th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Cessa has allowed a slugging percentage of .944 (51 Total Bases / 54 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: .577 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 75% (15/20) against Luis Cessa against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 0 Percentile.
Luis Cessa has a strikeout rate of just 7% (3 SO in 43 PAs) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 14% (10/70) against Luis Cessa this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Phillies are just 78-7 (.918) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Phillies are 12-66 (.154) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Phillies are just 23-31 (.426) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .546.
The Phillies are just 5-9 (.357) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .546.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Reds are just 20-22 (.476) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The Reds are just 57-6 (.905) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Reds are just 17-28 (.378) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .651.
The Reds are just 1-5 (.167) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .486.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
34% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
The Phillies are batting .307 on breaking pitches this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Phillies hitters are slugging .539 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .446.
The Phillies are batting .269 against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting .479 in hitter’s counts this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .356.
The Reds are batting just .303 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.
Reds hitters have an OPS of 1.475 (100 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 1.157.
Reds hitters are slugging just .346 on the road since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 67 of 584 batters (12%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 5 double plays in 107 opportunities (5%) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .261 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the 2020 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .306 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Reds pitchers have walked 143 of 1,551 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 309 of 3,408 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2020 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10
- Luke Weaver (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D15
- Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Nicholas Nelson (Phillies): Hamstring, D15
- Cristopher Sánchez (Phillies): Left Tricep, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Elbow, D10
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