Phillies vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 16

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 16, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Phillies (64-51) are -175 favorites vs the Reds (45-69)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson (7-5), 4.29 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Timothy James Zeuch (0-1), 13.50 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSOH

The Philadelphia Phillies (-175) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+145) on Tuesday, August 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Phillies vs Reds Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 64-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 54-60 ATS.

Phillies vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 -110O 9 -105-175
Reds +1.5 -110U 9 -115+145

Phillies vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 54.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 48 away games (+12.95 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.35 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 33 games (+12.25 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 44 away games (+12.20 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.10 Units / 31% ROI)

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+13.20 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+10.05 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+9.10 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+8.65 Units / 106% ROI)
  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+8.50 Units / 68% ROI)

Reds vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Almora Jr. 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Aristides Aquino 0.5 +325 0.5 -500
Donovan Solano 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Jake Fraley 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Joey Votto 0.5 +325 0.5 -500

Reds vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Almora Jr. 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Aristides Aquino 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Donovan Solano 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Jake Fraley 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Joey Votto 0.5 -225 0.5 +155

Reds vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Almora Jr. 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Aristides Aquino 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Donovan Solano 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Jake Fraley 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Joey Votto 0.5 +120 0.5 -165

Reds vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
T.J. Zeuch 3.5 +110 3.5 -155
Kyle Gibson 4.5 -115 4.5 -120
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 65 games (+18.65 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 63 of their last 110 games (+13.65 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 64 games (+11.55 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 28 away games (+11.35 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.85 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 86 games (+12.05 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.55 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 37 games (+8.05 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 88 games (+7.20 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+5.50 Units / 34% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 60-55 against the Run Line (+4.15 Units / 2.97% ROI).

  • 64-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.55 Units / 3.5% ROI
  • 55-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.25 Units / -3.35% ROI
  • 54-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.2 Units / -4.9% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 54-60 against the Run Line (-11.7 Units / -8.3% ROI).

  • 45-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.9 Units / -9.75% ROI
  • 57-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.25 Units / -3.37% ROI
  • 55-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.95 Units / -6.35% ROI

Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 59% when ahead in the count (seventh lowest)– 12th Percentile and 74% when behind in the count this season (tied for fourth highest among qualified SPs)– 94th Percentile.

Kyle Gibson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 58% (293/505) this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — eighth Percentile.

Kyle Gibson has located his fastball up for a strike just 49% (303/616) of the time since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: 60% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (206/616) against Kyle Gibson on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: 49% — second Percentile.

Timothy James Zeuch: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

T.J. Zeuch has allowed at least one HR in each of his last five games dating back to April 9th, 2021 — Josiah Gray has the longest active streak at 9.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Phillies are 11-39 (.220) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .088.

The Phillies are 13-39 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .113.

The Phillies are 20-3 (.870) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.

The Phillies are 31-9 (.775) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Reds are just 34-7 (.829) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .912.

The Reds are just 7-25 (.219) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.

The Reds are 10-6 (.625) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Reds are just 32-7 (.821) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .887.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .425 (87 PA’s) against LHP this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .307.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of 1.033 (87 PA’s) against LHP this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .697.

The Phillies are batting .367 against LHP this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .238.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .775 (1,228 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

Reds hitters are slugging just .331 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.

The Reds are batting just .226 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.

Reds hitters have an OBP of just .286 (524 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.

The Reds are batting just .239 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.

The Phillies have won 43% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 156 of 2,447 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Reds pitchers have walked 431 of 4,405 batters (10%) this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 63 double plays in 887 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,048 of 10,604 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .281 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .237.

Reds vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Christian Greene (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D10
  • Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Schwarber (Phillies): Calf, Day-to-Day
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.