- The Phillies (64-51) are -175 favorites vs the Reds (45-69)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson (7-5), 4.29 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Timothy James Zeuch (0-1), 13.50 ERA
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Philadelphia Phillies (-175) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+145) on Tuesday, August 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Phillies vs Reds Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 64-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 54-60 ATS.
Phillies vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 -110 | O 9 -105 | -175 |
| Reds | +1.5 -110 | U 9 -115 | +145 |
Phillies vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 54.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 48 away games (+12.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.35 Units / 71% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 33 games (+12.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 44 away games (+12.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.10 Units / 31% ROI)
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+13.20 Units / 51% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+10.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+9.10 Units / 82% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+8.65 Units / 106% ROI)
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+8.50 Units / 68% ROI)
Reds vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Almora Jr. | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Aristides Aquino | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -500 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jake Fraley | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -500 |
Reds vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Almora Jr. | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Aristides Aquino | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jake Fraley | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
Reds vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Almora Jr. | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Aristides Aquino | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jake Fraley | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -165 |
Reds vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| T.J. Zeuch | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -155 |
| Kyle Gibson | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 65 games (+18.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 63 of their last 110 games (+13.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 64 games (+11.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 28 away games (+11.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.85 Units / 20% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 86 games (+12.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 37 games (+8.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 88 games (+7.20 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+5.50 Units / 34% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 60-55 against the Run Line (+4.15 Units / 2.97% ROI).
- 64-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.55 Units / 3.5% ROI
- 55-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.25 Units / -3.35% ROI
- 54-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.2 Units / -4.9% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 54-60 against the Run Line (-11.7 Units / -8.3% ROI).
- 45-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.9 Units / -9.75% ROI
- 57-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.25 Units / -3.37% ROI
- 55-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.95 Units / -6.35% ROI
Kyle Gibson: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 59% when ahead in the count (seventh lowest)– 12th Percentile and 74% when behind in the count this season (tied for fourth highest among qualified SPs)– 94th Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 58% (293/505) this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — eighth Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has located his fastball up for a strike just 49% (303/616) of the time since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: 60% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (206/616) against Kyle Gibson on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: 49% — second Percentile.
Timothy James Zeuch: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
T.J. Zeuch has allowed at least one HR in each of his last five games dating back to April 9th, 2021 — Josiah Gray has the longest active streak at 9.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Phillies are 11-39 (.220) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Phillies are 13-39 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .113.
The Phillies are 20-3 (.870) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Phillies are 31-9 (.775) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Reds are just 34-7 (.829) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .912.
The Reds are just 7-25 (.219) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
The Reds are 10-6 (.625) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 32-7 (.821) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .887.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .425 (87 PA’s) against LHP this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .307.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of 1.033 (87 PA’s) against LHP this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Phillies are batting .367 against LHP this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .775 (1,228 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .331 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.
The Reds are batting just .226 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Reds hitters have an OBP of just .286 (524 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
The Reds are batting just .239 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies have won 43% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 156 of 2,447 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 431 of 4,405 batters (10%) this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 63 double plays in 887 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,048 of 10,604 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .281 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Reds vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D10
- Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Schwarber (Phillies): Calf, Day-to-Day
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D15
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