• The Phillies are -115 favorites vs the Twins
• Phillies vs Twins Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
• Phillies / Twins TV Channel: TWTV | NSPA

The Philadelphia Phillies (-115) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-105) on August 16, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 pm in Minneapolis, MN.

This season, the Phillies are 66-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 67-56 ATS.

Phillies vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Phillies starting pitcher: Andrew Painter 2-8, 6.31 ERA
• Twins starting pitcher: Dean Kremer 2-4, 5.33 ERA

Phillies vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Phillies vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Phillies vs Twins and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

• Brandon Marsh has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
• Justin Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+11.60 Units / 26% ROI)
• J.T. Realmuto has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.25 Units / 36% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Walks Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.85 Units / 72% ROI)
• Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.40 Units / 42% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Ryan Jeffers has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 25 games (+17.90 Units / 36% ROI)
• Trevor Larnach has hit the Walks Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+10.70 Units / 27% ROI)
• Luke Keaschall has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+10.50 Units / 34% ROI)
• Byron Buxton has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.35 Units / 28% ROI)
• Kody Clemens has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.15 Units / 33% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 45 away games (+11.70 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games (+6.20 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 away games (+6.10 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.25 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 50 away games (+4.40 Units / 7% ROI)

Twins Best Bets Today:

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+8.30 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.50 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.90 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games (+4.70 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 50 games at home (+3.70 Units / 6% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 48-75 against the Run Line (-33.45 Units / -22.95% ROI).

• 66-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.55 Units / -5.17% ROI
• 54-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.15 Units / -11.07% ROI
• 63-54 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.05 Units / 2.98% ROI

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Twins are 67-56 against the Run Line (-2.2 Units / -1.26% ROI).

• 60-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.55 Units / -1.84% ROI
• 65-51 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.2 Units / 5.98% ROI
• 51-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.6 Units / -15.18% ROI

Twins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Twins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Twins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Phillies were 15-45 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .124.

The Phillies were 83-15 (.847) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.

The Phillies were 81-21 (.794) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

The Phillies were 35-5 (.875) when they had 5 or more XBH in the 2025 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .799.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Twins were just 5-19 (.208) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2025 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins were just 7-14 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2025 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins were 69-1 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .949.

The Twins were just 20-76 (.208) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2025 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .286.

Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends

Phillies hitters are slugging .728 with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of 1.234 (865 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .230 (2,497 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of just .662 (2,329 PA’s) on the road this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Twins Hitting Stats & Trends

The Twins are batting just .291 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Twins hitters have 72 extra-base hits out of 156 total hits (46%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB.

Twins hitters have a 50% QAB rate with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB.

Twins hitters have 60 extra-base hits out of 136 total hits (44%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Phillies pitchers this season — best in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH (2,981 batted balls) this season — best in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .281 against Phillies pitchers this season — highest in MLB.

Twins Pitching Stats & Trends

Twins pitchers have walked 10% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Twins pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

The Twins have allowed 5.40 runs per game (335/62) on the road this season — highest in MLB.

The Twins have allowed 1.62 runs per game (201/124) in late innings this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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