- The Yankees are -175 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker
- Yankees starting pitcher: Nestor Cortes
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Philadelphia Phillies (+145) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-175) on Monday, April 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.
The Yankees are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Phillies vs Yankees Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 0-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 2-1 ATS.
Phillies vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -145 | O 7.5 -110 | +145 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +120 | U 7.5 -110 | -175 |
Phillies vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 63.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+4.05 Units / 203% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.35 Units / 89% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.50 Units / 125% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games (+4.50 Units / 99% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.65 Units / 122% ROI)
- Oswaldo Cabrera has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Oswaldo Cabrera has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 42% ROI)
Yankees vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Yankees vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Yankees vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Yankees vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nestor Cortes | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -150 |
| Walker | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 61 away games (+24.08 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.83 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+6.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.20 Units / 22% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 89 games at home (+13.15 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+11.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 89 of their last 174 games (+1.80 Units / 1% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 1-2 against the Run Line (-1.9 Units / -40.43% ROI).
- 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.25 Units / -100% ROI
- 2-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.9 Units / 26.09% ROI
- 1-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.05 Units / -33.33% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 2-1 against the Run Line (+1.9 Units / 63.33% ROI).
- 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 13.64% ROI
- 1-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -37.31% ROI
- 2-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 27.69% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Taijuan Walker had a strike rate of just 55% (260/476) on sliders in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 168 of Taijuan Walker’s 793 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 21%) since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 32% — second Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 126 of Taijuan Walker’s 568 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 22%) since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 22% (128/571) against Taijuan Walker on sliders since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 33% — second Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .162 (72-for-444) against Nestor Cortes’ fastball since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .262 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .118 (13-for-110) against Nestor Cortes on low fastballs since the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .273 — 100th Percentile.
Nestor Cortes allowed a slugging percentage of just .250 (15 Total Bases / 60 ABs) when he was behind in the count in 2022 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .582 — 100th Percentile.
Nestor Cortes has allowed a slugging percentage of just .209 (23 Total Bases / 110 ABs) on low fastballs since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .428 — 99th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Phillies are just 15-21 (.417) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies were 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies were just 74-6 (.925) when leading entering the 9th inning in 2022 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Phillies were 71-5 (.934) when leading entering the 8th inning in 2022 — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees were 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Yankees were 10-49 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Yankees are 21-18 (.538) when underdogs since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Phillies hitters had an OPS of .771 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP in 2022 — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Phillies hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Phillies hitters slugged .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 351 walks in 3,457 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters drew 162 walks in 1,549 PA’s (10%) against LHP in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of .748 (3,807 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .693.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 187 of 2,889 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers had allowed a run just 24% of the time after an opposing score in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .249 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the 2021 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers won 56% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
In games when their opponents scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have still managed to win 47% of the time in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Yankees vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Kahnle (Yankees): Bicep, D15
- Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Shoulder, D10
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D15
- Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Forearm, D15
- Harrison Bader (Yankees): Oblique, D10
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Nicholas Nelson (Phillies): Hamstring, D15
- Cristopher Sánchez (Phillies): Left Tricep, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Elbow, D10
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