- The Yankees are -160 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies starting pitcher: Matthew Strahm
- Yankees starting pitcher: Domingo Germán
- Watch the game on TBS
The Philadelphia Phillies (+135) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-160) on Tuesday, April 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.
The Yankees are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Phillies vs Yankees Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 0-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 3-1 ATS.
Phillies vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -150 | O 8.5 +100 | +135 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +125 | U 8.5 -120 | -160 |
Phillies vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 66.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+4.05 Units / 203% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.35 Units / 89% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.50 Units / 125% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games (+4.50 Units / 99% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.65 Units / 122% ROI)
- Oswaldo Cabrera has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Oswaldo Cabrera has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 42% ROI)
Yankees vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
Yankees vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
Yankees vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Yankees vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Domingo German | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +110 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 70 away games (+11.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 94 away games (+11.28 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 94 away games (+0.50 Units / 0% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 62 of their last 90 games at home (+14.15 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 49 of their last 84 games at home (+12.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 86 of their last 175 games (+6.90 Units / 2% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 92% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 89 of their last 175 games (+0.75 Units / 0% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 1-3 against the Run Line (-3.3 Units / -54.1% ROI).
- 0-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.25 Units / -100% ROI
- 3-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.9 Units / 41.3% ROI
- 1-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.1 Units / -50% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 3-1 against the Run Line (+3.1 Units / 77.5% ROI).
- 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.6 Units / 26.23% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.25 Units / -5.56% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.15 Units / -3.49% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matt Strahm did not induce opposing hitters to ground into a double play in 22 opportunities (0%) in close and late situations in 2022 — tied for lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — ninth Percentile.
Matt Strahm located 45% of his pitches inside (340/764) in 2022 — tied for 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
40% of Matt Strahm’s fastball strikeouts were located inside in 2022 — tied for 13th highest among among 126 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 90th Percentile.
Matt Strahm threw at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 73% (106/145) of opposing batters in 2022 — tied for 15th highest among among 209 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 93rd Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Domingo German has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (641/1,910) in non-two strike counts since the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.
Domingo German has allowed a slugging percentage of .644 (65 Total Bases / 101 ABs) on fastballs away since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .390 — 0 Percentile.
Domingo German has thrown his curveball 39% of the time (553/1,414) against right-handed batters since the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total CB; League Avg: 14% — 98th Percentile.
Domingo German has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (939/2,660) since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 97th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Phillies were 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Phillies are 18-121 (.129) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .090.
The Phillies are 50-8 (.862) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2021 season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .809.
The Phillies are just 49-57 (.462) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .539.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 21-18 (.538) when underdogs since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Yankees were 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Yankees were 10-49 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters had an OPS of .771 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP in 2022 — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Phillies batted .260 at home in 2022 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Phillies batted .266 against LHP in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Phillies hitters slugged .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 905 walks in 8,883 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters have drawn 270 walks in 2,124 PA’s (13%) in close and late situations since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Yankees hitters slugged .422 against RHP in 2022 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 188 of 2,897 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .256 against Phillies pitchers with the shift in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .251 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers won 56% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
In games when their opponents scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have still managed to win 47% of the time in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the 2021 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Kahnle (Yankees): Bicep, D15
- Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Shoulder, D10
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D15
- Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Forearm, D15
- Harrison Bader (Yankees): Oblique, D10
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Nicholas Nelson (Phillies): Hamstring, D15
- Cristopher Sánchez (Phillies): Left Tricep, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Joshua Harrison (Phillies): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Elbow, D10
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