• The Pirates are -105 favorites vs the Astros
• Pirates vs Astros Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
• Pirates / Astros TV Channel: FS1 | SCHN | SNPT

The Pittsburgh Pirates (-105) visit Daikin Park to take on the Houston Astros (-115) on June 4, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 pm in Houston, TX.

This season, the Pirates are 33-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 29-34 ATS.

Pirates vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:

• Pirates starting pitcher: Jared Jones 0-0, 10.39 ERA
• Astros starting pitcher: Kai-Wei Teng 3-3, 2.59 ERA

Pirates vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 52.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Pirates vs Astros and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

• Henry Davis has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+18.90 Units / 270% ROI)
• Henry Davis has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.55 Units / 29% ROI)
• Henry Davis has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.30 Units / 36% ROI)
• Henry Davis has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.25 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.65 Units / 32% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+18.00 Units / 257% ROI)
• Cam Smith has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+15.45 Units / 77% ROI)
• Cam Smith has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+14.00 Units / 61% ROI)
• Cam Smith has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+12.20 Units / 46% ROI)
• Cam Smith has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+11.95 Units / 38% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 40 away games (+10.20 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 45 away games (+8.65 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 40 away games (+7.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 50 away games (+7.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.35 Units / 24% ROI)

Astros Best Bets Today:

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games at home (+12.40 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 12 games (+10.60 Units / 80% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.10 Units / 59% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+6.45 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.85 Units / 29% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 31-30 against the Run Line (+2.45 Units / 3.24% ROI).

• 33-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.35 Units / -2.93% ROI
• 35-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.3 Units / 10.62% ROI
• 25-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.15 Units / -19.44% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Astros are 29-34 against the Run Line (-11.6 Units / -13.55% ROI).

• 28-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.55 Units / -10.5% ROI
• 35-24 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.75 Units / 10.98% ROI
• 24-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.25 Units / -20.94% ROI

Astros vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Astros vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Astros vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Pirates are 28-3 (.903) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .722.

The Pirates are just 2-15 (.118) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

The Pirates are 18-10 (.643) after a loss this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .470.

The Pirates are just 11-76 (.126) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Astros are just 2-18 (.100) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

The Astros are just 0-31 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .054.

The Astros are just 1-32 (.030) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .106.

The Astros are just 11-16 (.407) after a win this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.

Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends

The Pirates are batting .324 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have 38 extra-base hits out of 153 total hits (just 25%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of .359 (1,292 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of .377 (274 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB.

Astros Hitting Stats & Trends

Astros hitters are slugging .446 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Astros have scored 133 runs with two outs this season — tied for most in MLB.

Astros hitters have an OBP of .332 (1,242 PA’s) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB.

Astros hitters have 20 extra-base hits out of 73 total hits (just 27%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends

Pirates pitchers have walked 11% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB.

Pirates pitchers have allowed 56 home runs this season — tied for 4th fewest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .282 against Pirates pitchers with runners on base this season — 4th highest in MLB.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% in the first 5 innings this season — 4th best in MLB.

Astros Pitching Stats & Trends

Astros pitchers have walked 12% of batters this season — highest in MLB.

Astros pitchers have walked 12% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB.

Astros pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of just 57% this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Astros pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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