- The Braves (33-27) are -225 favorites vs the Pirates (24-33)
- Pirates starting pitcher: José Quintana (1-3), 3.186 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Kyle Wright (6-3), 2.394 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSE
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+180) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-225) on Sunday, June 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Pirates vs Braves Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 24-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 31-29 ATS.
Pirates vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -110 | O 9 +100 | +180 |
| Braves | -1.5 -110 | U 9 -120 | -225 |
Pirates vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s matchup with 51.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+7.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.05 Units / 73% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 45% ROI)
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 46 games (+17.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 48 games (+16.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 34 of his last 48 games (+12.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 45 games (+11.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.25 Units / 34% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 48 games (+8.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 away games (+7.35 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 away games (+6.50 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 away games (+6.25 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 32 games (+2.90 Units / 8% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 34 games (+10.47 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in their last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+7.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 52 games (+7.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 26 of their last 48 games (+5.75 Units / 11% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 26-31 against the Run Line (-9.2 Units / -12.89% ROI).
- 24-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.9 Units / 1.49% ROI
- 22-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.65 Units / -17.11% ROI
- 30-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.6 Units / 8.83% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 31-29 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 33-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.7 Units / -2.99% ROI
- 32-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.65 Units / 7% ROI
- 25-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.05 Units / -15.29% ROI
José Quintana: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has thrown his changeup for a strike just 51% (209/409) of the time since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 108 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a miss rate of 36% (79/222) against Jose Quintana when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 108 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 44% (180/409) against Jose Quintana on changeups since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 108 total IP; League Avg: 52% — fourth Percentile.
Jose Quintana has allowed an OBP of .371 (394 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 108 total IP; League Avg: .306 — third Percentile.
Kyle Wright: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Wright has allowed a slugging percentage of just .262 (63 Total Bases / 240 ABs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .384 — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .168 (19-for-113) against Kyle Wright this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 96th Percentile.
Kyle Wright has walked 8 of 42 batters (19%) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .192 (46-for-240) against Kyle Wright this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 93rd Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Pirates are just 70-18 (.795) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Pirates are just 2-13 (.133) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.
The Pirates are 14-2 (.875) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Pirates are just 13-17 (.433) at home this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Braves are just 0-24 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .074.
The Braves are just 26-5 (.839) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .901.
The Braves are 76-62 (.551) on the road since the 2020 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .463.
The Braves are just 9-17 (.346) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .146 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.
The Pirates have answered-back in just 22% of innings after an opponent scores since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Pirates hitters have 49 strikeouts in 151 PA’s (33%) against LHP over the last 14 days (9 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .664 (2,365 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have 201 extra-base hits out of 459 total hits (44%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Braves hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Braves hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play in non-two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Braves are batting .249 with two outs since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .231.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 184 of 1,900 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 243 of 2,416 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 813 of 8,323 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 207 of 2,183 batters (10%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Braves vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Eddie Rosario (Braves): Eye, D60
- Collin McHugh (Braves): Undisclosed, D10
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Undisclosed, D60
- Randy Jackson (Braves): Lat, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Josh VanMeter (Pirates): Finger, D10
- Richard Hembree (Pirates): Right Calf, D15
- Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D10
- Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Undisclosed, D15
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Undisclosed, D10
- Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
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