Pirates vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 9

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 09, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Braves (30-27) are -275 favorites vs the Pirates (24-30)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker (0-5), 4.703 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried (5-2), 2.739 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+220) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-275) on Thursday, June 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+105).

The Pirates vs Braves Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 24-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 28-29 ATS.

Pirates vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+2.5 -130O 8.5 +100+220
Braves -2.5 +105U 8.5 -120-275

Pirates vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s matchup with 60.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Braves vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.40 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Runs Over in his last 5 games (+6.60 Units / 132% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+6.15 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 games (+5.50 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 55% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 45 games (+13.95 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 45 games (+12.65 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 43 games (+12.45 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+11.35 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 42 games (+10.40 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 away games (+9.55 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 away games (+7.80 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 away games (+7.65 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 14 of their last 23 away games (+7.40 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games (+7.25 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 31 games (+9.97 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+9.30 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 25 of their last 45 games (+5.75 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 49 games (+4.55 Units / 7% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 26-28 against the Run Line (-6 Units / -8.8% ROI).

  • 24-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.9 Units / 6.78% ROI
  • 21-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.3 Units / -15.8% ROI
  • 28-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.75 Units / 7.88% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 28-29 against the Run Line (-3 Units / -4.05% ROI).

  • 30-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.7 Units / -6.88% ROI
  • 31-23 when betting on the total runs Over for +6 Units / 9.52% ROI
  • 23-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.9 Units / -17.43% ROI

Hitters have swung at 46% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (108/234) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.

JT Brubaker has a strike rate of just 55% (128/234) in two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 51% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (392/771) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 60% — first Percentile.

JT Brubaker has located his fastball up for a strike just 49% (334/682) of the time since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 60% — second Percentile.

Max Fried: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

8 of Max Fried’s 28 breaking pitch strikeouts (29%) have been backdoor this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 95th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.8 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (107 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 80.3

Opponents have a groundball rate of 70% (28/40) against Max Fried — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

32 of Max Fried’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since the start of last season — 2nd most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: nan — 99th Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Pirates are just 2-12 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.

The Pirates are just 19-79 (.194) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Pirates are just 70-17 (.805) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.

The Pirates are just 13-17 (.433) at home this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Braves are just 0-24 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .073.

The Braves are just 1-22 (.043) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .094.

The Braves are just 24-5 (.828) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .906.

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when scoring in the first inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .668.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .223 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.

The Pirates are batting just .207 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .231.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .304 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

The Pirates are batting just .146 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.

Braves hitters have 201 extra-base hits out of 459 total hits (44%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters are slugging .478 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .389.

Braves hitters have 243 extra-base hits out of 566 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Braves hitters are slugging .716 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.

Pirates pitchers have walked 241 of 2,392 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 182 of 1,876 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 5.40 (901.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.21.

Pirates pitchers have walked 13 of 99 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (11 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Braves pitchers this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have walked 49 of 511 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Braves pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Braves vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Tyler Matzek (Braves): Shoulder, D15
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Eddie Rosario (Braves): Eye, D60
  • Collin McHugh (Braves): Undisclosed, D10
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Undisclosed, D60
  • Randy Jackson (Braves): Lat, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Josh VanMeter (Pirates): Finger, D10
  • Richard Hembree (Pirates): Right Calf, D15
  • Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
  • Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D10
  • Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Undisclosed, D15
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Undisclosed, D10
  • Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.