- The Braves (30-27) are -275 favorites vs the Pirates (24-30)
- Pirates starting pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker (0-5), 4.703 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried (5-2), 2.739 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+220) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-275) on Thursday, June 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+105).
The Pirates vs Braves Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 24-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 28-29 ATS.
Pirates vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +2.5 -130 | O 8.5 +100 | +220 |
| Braves | -2.5 +105 | U 8.5 -120 | -275 |
Pirates vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s matchup with 60.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Runs Over in his last 5 games (+6.60 Units / 132% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+6.15 Units / 77% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 games (+5.50 Units / 82% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 55% ROI)
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 45 games (+13.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 45 games (+12.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 43 games (+12.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+11.35 Units / 43% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 42 games (+10.40 Units / 18% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 away games (+9.55 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 away games (+7.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 away games (+7.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 14 of their last 23 away games (+7.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games (+7.25 Units / 14% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 31 games (+9.97 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+9.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 25 of their last 45 games (+5.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 49 games (+4.55 Units / 7% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 26-28 against the Run Line (-6 Units / -8.8% ROI).
- 24-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.9 Units / 6.78% ROI
- 21-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.3 Units / -15.8% ROI
- 28-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.75 Units / 7.88% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 28-29 against the Run Line (-3 Units / -4.05% ROI).
- 30-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.7 Units / -6.88% ROI
- 31-23 when betting on the total runs Over for +6 Units / 9.52% ROI
- 23-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.9 Units / -17.43% ROI
Jonathan Brubaker: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 46% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (108/234) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
JT Brubaker has a strike rate of just 55% (128/234) in two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 51% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (392/771) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 60% — first Percentile.
JT Brubaker has located his fastball up for a strike just 49% (334/682) of the time since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 60% — second Percentile.
Max Fried: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
8 of Max Fried’s 28 breaking pitch strikeouts (29%) have been backdoor this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 95th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.8 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (107 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 80.3
Opponents have a groundball rate of 70% (28/40) against Max Fried — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
32 of Max Fried’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since the start of last season — 2nd most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: nan — 99th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Pirates are just 2-12 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
The Pirates are just 19-79 (.194) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Pirates are just 70-17 (.805) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.
The Pirates are just 13-17 (.433) at home this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Braves are just 0-24 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .073.
The Braves are just 1-22 (.043) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Braves are just 24-5 (.828) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when scoring in the first inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .668.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .223 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.
The Pirates are batting just .207 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .231.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .304 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
The Pirates are batting just .146 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have 201 extra-base hits out of 459 total hits (44%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Braves hitters are slugging .478 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .389.
Braves hitters have 243 extra-base hits out of 566 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Braves hitters are slugging .716 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 241 of 2,392 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 182 of 1,876 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 5.40 (901.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.21.
Pirates pitchers have walked 13 of 99 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (11 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Braves pitchers this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have walked 49 of 511 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Braves pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Braves vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Eddie Rosario (Braves): Eye, D60
- Collin McHugh (Braves): Undisclosed, D10
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Undisclosed, D60
- Randy Jackson (Braves): Lat, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Josh VanMeter (Pirates): Finger, D10
- Richard Hembree (Pirates): Right Calf, D15
- Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D10
- Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Undisclosed, D15
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Undisclosed, D10
- Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
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