- The Braves are -275 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Luis L. Ortiz
- Braves starting pitcher: Allan Winans
- Watch the game on BSSE
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+220) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-275) on Sunday, September 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+100).
The Pirates vs Braves Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 0-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 0-0 ATS.
Pirates vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +2.5 -120 | O 10 -110 | +220 |
| Braves | -2.5 +100 | U 10 -110 | -275 |
Pirates vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 53.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 44 games (+12.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+11.10 Units / 64% ROI)
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 45 games (+8.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 39 games (+8.15 Units / 16% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 41 games (+17.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 49 games (+16.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Over in 30 of his last 41 games (+13.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+11.80 Units / 98% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 33 games (+11.70 Units / 26% ROI)
Braves vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
Braves vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Braves vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| RBis will Liover Peguero | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
Braves vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Allan Winans | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
| Luis Ortiz | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 113 games (+11.99 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 away games (+6.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 44 games (+1.09 Units / 2% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 53 of their last 82 games (+19.49 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 140 games (+17.98 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 82 of their last 140 games (+16.99 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 42 games at home (+15.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 67 games at home (+11.30 Units / 15% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .303 (82-for-271) against Luis Ortiz this season — tied for 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: .252 — fifth Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has located his fastball low 46% of the time (285/624) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 57% (75/131) against Luis Ortiz on fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 46% — first Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of 54% (31/57) against Luis Ortiz when he’s behind in the count this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 95th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Allan Winans has a strike rate of 72% (148/205) over the last 30 days (2 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Allan Winans has thrown his changeup 34% of the time (69/205) over the last 30 days (2 games) — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 95th Percentile.
Allan Winans has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 76% (29/38) of opposing batters over the last 30 days (2 games) — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 96th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 52% of Allan Winans’ pitches (107/205) over the last 30 days (2 games) — 15th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 90th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Pirates are just 60-91 (.397) on the road since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .473.
The Pirates are just 9-144 (.059) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .093.
The Pirates are just 20-34 (.370) after a road win since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .495.
The Pirates are just 31-59 (.344) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .420.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Braves are 158-33 (.827) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
The Braves are 24-38 (.387) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .220.
The Braves are 43-35 (.551) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Braves are 10-3 (.769) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .222 on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Pirates are batting just .124 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .375 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
The Pirates are batting just .179 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .233.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .535 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
Braves hitters have an OBP of .399 (651 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .329.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .893 (1,194 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .744.
The Braves are batting .323 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,708 of 17,842 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,102 of 11,702 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in close and late situations since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 351 of 4,073 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% in late innings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Samuel Hilliard (Braves): Heel, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Forearm, D15
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Daysbel Hernández (Braves): Forearm, D15
- Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Collin McHugh (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Andrew McCutchen (Pirates): Achilles, D10
- Angel Perdomo (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Henry Davis (Pirates): Hand, D10
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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