Pirates vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 8

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Atlanta Braves' Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) runs during a baseball game against the Miami Marlins, Tuesday, May 2, 2023, in Miami.
(AP Photo/Marta Lavandier)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 08, 2023, 3:30 PM
  • The Braves are -225 favorites vs the Pirates
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller
  • Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder
  • Watch the game on BSSE

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+180) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-225) on Friday, September 8, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).

The Pirates vs Braves Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Pirates are 65-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 72-67 ATS.

Pirates vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+1.5 -105O 9.5 -110+180
Braves -1.5 -115U 9.5 -110-225

Pirates vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 80.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Alfonso Rivas has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.70 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 42 games (+9.25 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Connor Joe has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+9.20 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.95 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 37 games (+8.45 Units / 18% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 47 games (+17.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 39 games (+15.20 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+12.30 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 39 games (+11.75 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Orlando Arcia has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+11.15 Units / 112% ROI)

Braves vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100
Matt Olson 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Jack Suwinski 0.5 +275 0.5 -450
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400

Braves vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eddie Rosario 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Matt Olson 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Jack Suwinski 0.5 -175 0.5 +135
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 -250 0.5 +190

Braves vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +185 0.5 -250
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +180 0.5 -250
Matt Olson 0.5 +130 0.5 -165
Jack Suwinski 0.5 +140 0.5 -190
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +170 0.5 -225

Braves vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Mitch Keller 4.5 -120 4.5 -110
Bryce Elder 4.5 -115 4.5 -115
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 64 of their last 112 games (+10.99 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.05 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 43 games (+2.09 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 52 of their last 81 games (+18.49 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 85 of their last 139 games (+16.98 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 81 of their last 139 games (+15.99 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 41 games at home (+14.15 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 66 games at home (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 71-68 against the Run Line (-14.05 Units / -7.62% ROI).

  • 65-74 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.1 Units / 4.72% ROI
  • 75-58 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.35 Units / 7.47% ROI
  • 58-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.15 Units / -15.9% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 72-67 against the Run Line (+1.7 Units / 1.04% ROI).

  • 91-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.55 Units / 3.48% ROI
  • 74-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.65 Units / 4.36% ROI
  • 61-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.25 Units / -13.39% ROI

Mitch Keller has allowed a slugging percentage of just .213 (19 Total Bases / 89 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .373 — 97th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .310 (45-for-145) against Mitch Keller with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .243 — eighth Percentile.

Mitch Keller has thrown elevated pitches 41% of the time (228/555) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 97th Percentile.

Mitch Keller has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 81.7 MPH on inside pitches since last season (344 balls in play) — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 85.6

Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Bryce Elder has a strikeout rate of just 17% (111 SO in 642 PAs) this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — ninth Percentile.

Bryce Elder has located his fastballs down 46% of the time (575/1,251) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.

Bryce Elder has an average fastball velocity of just 89.8 MPH this season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 93.9 — fifth Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 19% (81/433) against Bryce Elder this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Pirates are just 20-33 (.377) after a road win since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .494.

The Pirates are just 22-120 (.155) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.

The Pirates are just 59-90 (.396) on the road since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .473.

The Pirates are just 105-54 (.660) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Braves are 24-37 (.393) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .221.

The Braves are 19-7 (.731) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 43-34 (.558) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.

The Braves are 20-24 (.455) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .272.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .672 (3,505 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.

The Pirates are batting just .231 against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .494 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.

The Pirates are batting just .221 on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Braves hitters are slugging .540 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .420.

Braves hitters are slugging .703 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .576.

Braves hitters are slugging .467 against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .403.

Braves hitters are slugging .484 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,704 of 17,761 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Pirates pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,098 of 11,621 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 348 of 4,056 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Braves vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D60
  • Yonny Chirinos (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Samuel Hilliard (Braves): Heel, D60
  • Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Forearm, D15
  • Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
  • Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
  • Daysbel Hernández (Braves): Forearm, D15
  • Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
  • Collin McHugh (Braves): Shoulder, D15
  • Michael Austin Riley (Braves): Illness, Day-to-Day
  • Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Andrew McCutchen (Pirates): Achilles, D10
  • Angel Perdomo (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
  • Henry Davis (Pirates): Hand, D10
  • Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, D60
  • Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
  • Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.