- The Braves are -225 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Johan Oviedo
- Braves starting pitcher: Dylan Dodd
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+185) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-225) on Saturday, September 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-130).
The Pirates vs Braves Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 65-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 73-67 ATS.
Pirates vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 +105 | O 10 +100 | +185 |
| Braves | -1.5 -130 | U 10 -120 | -225 |
Pirates vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 81.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 43 games (+10.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.10 Units / 63% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+9.20 Units / 44% ROI)
- Endy Rodriguez has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Alfonso Rivas has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 13 away games (+8.00 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 40 games (+16.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 48 games (+15.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 32 games (+13.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 40 games (+12.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- Nicky Lopez has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 24 games at home (+11.15 Units / 46% ROI)
Braves vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Alika Williams | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Braves vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Alika Williams | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Braves vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alika Williams | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| RBis will Liover Peguero | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Braves vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -135 |
| Dylan Dodd | 2.5 -175 | 2.5 +135 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 113 games (+11.99 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 away games (+6.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 44 games (+1.09 Units / 2% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 53 of their last 82 games (+19.49 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 140 games (+17.98 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 82 of their last 140 games (+16.99 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 42 games at home (+15.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 67 games at home (+11.30 Units / 15% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 71-69 against the Run Line (-15.2 Units / -8.19% ROI).
- 65-75 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.1 Units / 4.03% ROI
- 76-58 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.35 Units / 8.07% ROI
- 58-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -25.25 Units / -16.5% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 73-67 against the Run Line (+2.7 Units / 1.63% ROI).
- 92-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.55 Units / 3.85% ROI
- 75-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.65 Units / 4.98% ROI
- 61-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -21.35 Units / -14.02% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
starting pitcher – away
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
starting pitcher – home
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Pirates are just 30-59 (.337) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Pirates are just 105-54 (.660) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.
The Pirates are just 11-17 (.393) after a road win this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Pirates are just 9-17 (.346) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Braves are 24-37 (.393) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .220.
The Braves are 19-7 (.731) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 20-24 (.455) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Braves are 158-33 (.827) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,706 of 17,801 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 92 times since last season — fewest in MLB.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,100 of 11,661 batters (9%) since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 350 of 4,064 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Samuel Hilliard (Braves): Heel, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Forearm, D15
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Daysbel Hernández (Braves): Forearm, D15
- Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Collin McHugh (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Michael Austin Riley (Braves): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Andrew McCutchen (Pirates): Achilles, D10
- Angel Perdomo (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Henry Davis (Pirates): Hand, D10
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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