Pirates vs Brewers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 30

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 30, 2022, 9:45 AM
  • The Brewers (68-59) are -185 favorites vs the Pirates (48-80)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller (4-10), 4.50 ERA
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Adrian Houser (4-9), 5.14 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSWI

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+150) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-185) on Tuesday, August 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Pirates vs Brewers Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 47-77 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 51-73 ATS.

Pirates vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+1.5 -130O 9 -115+150
Brewers -1.5 +105U 9 -105-185

Pirates vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 65.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Brewers vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 30 games (+9.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.65 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Josh VanMeter has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+8.20 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Oneil Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+8.10 Units / 32% ROI)
  • JT Brubaker has hit the Strikeouts Over in 9 of his last 11 away games (+7.35 Units / 58% ROI)

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+9.70 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Over in 33 of his last 65 games (+9.65 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Jace Peterson has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+9.60 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Jace Peterson has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.60 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Jace Peterson has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.25 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.20 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.40 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 17 away games (+2.15 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 away games (+1.75 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 60 of their last 107 games (+15.10 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 56 games at home (+5.97 Units / 8% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 62-62 against the Run Line (-7.9 Units / -5.1% ROI).

  • 47-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.2 Units / -6.39% ROI
  • 55-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.1 Units / -8.86% ROI
  • 61-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.45 Units / 0.33% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 51-73 against the Run Line (-28.55 Units / -19% ROI).

  • 66-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -19 Units / -9.63% ROI
  • 62-56 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.9 Units / 0.66% ROI
  • 56-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.1 Units / -8.13% ROI

Opponents are hitting .422 (180-for-427) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: .331 — 0 Percentile.

Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .422 (225 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: .298 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .298 (121-for-406) against Mitch Keller’s non-fastballs since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: .222 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .340 (67-for-197) against Mitch Keller when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 0 Percentile.

Adrian Houser: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jason Alexander has limited playing time.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Pirates are just 15-69 (.179) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.

The Pirates are just 87-24 (.784) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 45-70 (.391) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Pirates are just 6-27 (.182) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Brewers are 7-44 (.137) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .115.

The Brewers are 7-46 (.132) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Brewers are 34-25 (.576) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .529.

The Brewers are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Pirates are batting just .143 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

The Pirates are batting just .138 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .292 (3,307 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .220 (5,593 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

The Brewers are batting just .218 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Brewers hitters have 361 strikeouts in 1,395 PA’s (26%) against LHP this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Brewers are batting just .098 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.11 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 61% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 225 of 2,517 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,301 of 13,275 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 5.40 (1129.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.19.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Brewers vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Trevor Gott (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
  • Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
  • Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
  • Michael Brosseau (Brewers): Oblique, D10
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Ryan Tellez (Brewers): Knee, Day-to-Day
  • Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Heineman (Pirates): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D15
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.