- The Brewers (68-59) are -185 favorites vs the Pirates (48-80)
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller (4-10), 4.50 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Adrian Houser (4-9), 5.14 ERA
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+150) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-185) on Tuesday, August 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Pirates vs Brewers Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 47-77 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 51-73 ATS.
Pirates vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -130 | O 9 -115 | +150 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +105 | U 9 -105 | -185 |
Pirates vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 65.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 30 games (+9.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.65 Units / 60% ROI)
- Josh VanMeter has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+8.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+8.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- JT Brubaker has hit the Strikeouts Over in 9 of his last 11 away games (+7.35 Units / 58% ROI)
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+9.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Over in 33 of his last 65 games (+9.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- Jace Peterson has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+9.60 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jace Peterson has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jace Peterson has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.25 Units / 35% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.20 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 17 away games (+2.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 away games (+1.75 Units / 19% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 60 of their last 107 games (+15.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 56 games at home (+5.97 Units / 8% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 62-62 against the Run Line (-7.9 Units / -5.1% ROI).
- 47-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.2 Units / -6.39% ROI
- 55-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.1 Units / -8.86% ROI
- 61-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.45 Units / 0.33% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 51-73 against the Run Line (-28.55 Units / -19% ROI).
- 66-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -19 Units / -9.63% ROI
- 62-56 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.9 Units / 0.66% ROI
- 56-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.1 Units / -8.13% ROI
Mitch Keller: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .422 (180-for-427) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: .331 — 0 Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .422 (225 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: .298 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .298 (121-for-406) against Mitch Keller’s non-fastballs since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: .222 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .340 (67-for-197) against Mitch Keller when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 0 Percentile.
Adrian Houser: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jason Alexander has limited playing time.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 15-69 (.179) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.
The Pirates are just 87-24 (.784) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 45-70 (.391) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Pirates are just 6-27 (.182) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are 7-44 (.137) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Brewers are 7-46 (.132) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Brewers are 34-25 (.576) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Brewers are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .143 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Pirates are batting just .138 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .292 (3,307 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .220 (5,593 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .218 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Brewers hitters have 361 strikeouts in 1,395 PA’s (26%) against LHP this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Brewers are batting just .098 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.11 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 61% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 225 of 2,517 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,301 of 13,275 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 5.40 (1129.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.19.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Gott (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
- Michael Brosseau (Brewers): Oblique, D10
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Ryan Tellez (Brewers): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Heineman (Pirates): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D15
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
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