- The Brewers (48-38) are -175 favorites vs the Pirates (35-50)
- Pirates starting pitcher: José Quintana (2-4), 3.33 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Eric Lauer (6-3), 3.84 ERA
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+145) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-175) on Sunday, July 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Pirates vs Brewers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 35-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 37-49 ATS.
Pirates vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -140 | O 7.5 -105 | +145 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +115 | U 7.5 -115 | -175 |
Pirates vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s matchup with 64.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+5.10 Units / 41% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- Michael Perez has hit the Total Bases Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- Michael Perez has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+2.35 Units / 34% ROI)
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 30 games (+8.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 30 games (+6.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- Keston Hiura has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.10 Units / 90% ROI)
- Keston Hiura has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.05 Units / 89% ROI)
- Jace Peterson has hit the Singles Over in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+4.15 Units / 59% ROI)
Brewers vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Rowdy Tellez | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Victor Caratini | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Brewers vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Rowdy Tellez | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Victor Caratini | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
Brewers vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Rowdy Tellez | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Victor Caratini | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Brewers vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Lauer | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -115 |
| Jose Quintana | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +115 |
| Eric Lauer | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 76 games (+7.90 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 41 away games (+6.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+4.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 36 away games (+3.85 Units / 10% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 39 of their last 66 games (+13.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 66 games (+7.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 23 games (+0.95 Units / 3% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 41-44 against the Run Line (-8.05 Units / -7.63% ROI).
- 35-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.6 Units / -0.67% ROI
- 35-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.95 Units / -13.89% ROI
- 44-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.4 Units / 5.73% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 37-49 against the Run Line (-13.85 Units / -13.41% ROI).
- 48-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.6 Units / -5.67% ROI
- 42-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.8 Units / -0.84% ROI
- 39-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.45 Units / -6.83% ROI
José Quintana: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has thrown his changeup for a strike just 49% (255/517) of the time since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 55% (664/1,210) of the time since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 62% — third Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 55% (507/925) when ahead in the count since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 57% (126/222) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Eric Lauer: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Eric Lauer has allowed an OPS of 1.665 (52 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.032 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 34% (99/292) against Eric Lauer on fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Eric Lauer has a strikeout rate of 40% (29 SO in 73 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 97th Percentile.
Eric Lauer has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.050 (42 Total Bases / 40 ABs) when behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: .578 — 0 Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 78-20 (.796) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 3-21 (.125) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.
The Pirates are just 15-27 (.357) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .479.
The Pirates are just 46-107 (.301) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are just 3-17 (.150) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .285.
The Brewers are 5-30 (.143) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .111.
The Brewers are 7-3 (.700) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 33-6 (.846) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.
The Pirates are batting just .204 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .232.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .639 (2,206 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .748.
The Pirates are batting just .219 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .227 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Brewers are batting just .225 at home since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 206 of 2,145 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 265 of 2,661 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 313 of 3,295 batters (10%) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 67 of 746 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Concussion, D7
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
- Dustin Renfroe (Brewers): Calf, D10
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Back/Rib cage, Day-to-Day
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D60
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
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