Pirates vs Brewers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 10

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 10, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Brewers (48-38) are -175 favorites vs the Pirates (35-50)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: José Quintana (2-4), 3.33 ERA
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Eric Lauer (6-3), 3.84 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSWI

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+145) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-175) on Sunday, July 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).

The Pirates vs Brewers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 35-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 37-49 ATS.

Pirates vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+1.5 -140O 7.5 -105+145
Brewers -1.5 +115U 7.5 -115-175

Pirates vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s matchup with 64.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Brewers vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+5.10 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.45 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Michael Perez has hit the Total Bases Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.60 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Michael Perez has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+2.35 Units / 34% ROI)

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 30 games (+8.10 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 30 games (+6.75 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Keston Hiura has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.10 Units / 90% ROI)
  • Keston Hiura has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.05 Units / 89% ROI)
  • Jace Peterson has hit the Singles Over in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+4.15 Units / 59% ROI)

Brewers vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
Jonathan Davis 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Luis Urias 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Rowdy Tellez 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Victor Caratini 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200

Brewers vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Jonathan Davis 0.5 -140 0.5 +100
Luis Urias 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Rowdy Tellez 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Victor Caratini 0.5 -190 0.5 +135

Brewers vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Jonathan Davis 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
Luis Urias 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Rowdy Tellez 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Victor Caratini 0.5 +195 0.5 -275

Brewers vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eric Lauer 5.5 -125 5.5 -115
Jose Quintana 4.5 -165 4.5 +115
Eric Lauer 4.5 -150 4.5 +105
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 76 games (+7.90 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.90 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 41 away games (+6.60 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+4.20 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 36 away games (+3.85 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 39 of their last 66 games (+13.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 66 games (+7.00 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.20 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.85 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 23 games (+0.95 Units / 3% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 41-44 against the Run Line (-8.05 Units / -7.63% ROI).

  • 35-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.6 Units / -0.67% ROI
  • 35-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.95 Units / -13.89% ROI
  • 44-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.4 Units / 5.73% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 37-49 against the Run Line (-13.85 Units / -13.41% ROI).

  • 48-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.6 Units / -5.67% ROI
  • 42-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.8 Units / -0.84% ROI
  • 39-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.45 Units / -6.83% ROI

Jose Quintana has thrown his changeup for a strike just 49% (255/517) of the time since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.

Jose Quintana has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 55% (664/1,210) of the time since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 62% — third Percentile.

Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 55% (507/925) when ahead in the count since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.

Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 57% (126/222) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.

Eric Lauer: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Eric Lauer has allowed an OPS of 1.665 (52 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.032 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 34% (99/292) against Eric Lauer on fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.

Eric Lauer has a strikeout rate of 40% (29 SO in 73 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 97th Percentile.

Eric Lauer has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.050 (42 Total Bases / 40 ABs) when behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: .578 — 0 Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Pirates are just 78-20 (.796) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 3-21 (.125) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.

The Pirates are just 15-27 (.357) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .479.

The Pirates are just 46-107 (.301) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Brewers are just 3-17 (.150) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .285.

The Brewers are 5-30 (.143) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .111.

The Brewers are 7-3 (.700) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Brewers are 33-6 (.846) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.

The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.

The Pirates are batting just .204 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .232.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .639 (2,206 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .748.

The Pirates are batting just .219 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.

The Brewers are batting just .227 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Brewers are batting just .225 at home since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Pirates pitchers have walked 206 of 2,145 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 265 of 2,661 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 313 of 3,295 batters (10%) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 67 of 746 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Brewers vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
  • Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Concussion, D7
  • Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
  • Dustin Renfroe (Brewers): Calf, D10
  • Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Back/Rib cage, Day-to-Day
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.