- The Brewers (47-37) are -200 favorites vs the Pirates (34-49)
- Pirates starting pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker (2-7), 4.28 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Ashby (1-6), 4.60 ERA
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+170) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-200) on Friday, July 8, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Pirates vs Brewers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 34-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 37-47 ATS.
Pirates vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -115 | O 8 -115 | +170 |
| Brewers | -1.5 -105 | U 8 -105 | -200 |
Pirates vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s matchup with 54.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.25 Units / 56% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+3.35 Units / 56% ROI)
- Michael Perez has hit the Total Bases Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.60 Units / 43% ROI)
- Michael Perez has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 40% ROI)
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+10.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+8.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- Luis Urias has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 13 games at home (+5.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 56% ROI)
Brewers vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jace Peterson | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
Brewers vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jace Peterson | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -110 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
Brewers vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jace Peterson | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
Brewers vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Ashby | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -145 |
| JT Brubaker | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 21 of their last 39 away games (+6.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 74 games (+5.90 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 34 away games (+5.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+2.90 Units / 32% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 38 of their last 64 games (+13.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 64 games (+9.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 23 games (+4.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 21 games (+3.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.85 Units / 16% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 39-44 against the Run Line (-10.2 Units / -9.87% ROI).
- 34-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.9 Units / -2.17% ROI
- 35-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.85 Units / -11.91% ROI
- 42-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.4 Units / 3.7% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 37-47 against the Run Line (-11.5 Units / -11.39% ROI).
- 47-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.9 Units / -4.57% ROI
- 42-37 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.3 Units / 1.39% ROI
- 37-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.45 Units / -9.16% ROI
Jonathan Brubaker: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
JT Brubaker has a strike rate of just 58% (223/385) in two strike counts this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — second Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 52% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (200/385) with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .467 (21-for-45) against JT Brubaker when he’s behind in the count this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .331 — sixth Percentile.
JT Brubaker has allowed an OBP of .340 (188 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .291 — sixth Percentile.
Aaron Ashby: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 67% (85/127) against Aaron Ashby this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (98/158) against Aaron Ashby this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 57% of Aaron Ashby’s pitches in the zone (300/524) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 67% — 0 Percentile.
Aaron Ashby has allowed at least one HR in each of his last five games dating back to May 30th — Jose Urquidy has the longest active streak at 9.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 78-20 (.796) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 3-5 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 3-36 (.077) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .109.
The Pirates are just 12-43 (.218) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are 7-3 (.700) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 42-14 (.750) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Brewers are just 3-17 (.150) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.
The Brewers are 26-8 (.765) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .204 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .232.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .300 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
The Pirates are batting just .204 with two outs since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .233.
The Pirates are batting just .200 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .227 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Brewers are batting just .225 at home since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Brewers are batting just .320 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 204 of 2,128 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 263 of 2,644 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,159 of 11,588 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 5.47 (365.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Concussion, D7
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
- Dustin Renfroe (Brewers): Calf, D10
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Back/Rib cage, Day-to-Day
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D60
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
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