Pirates vs Brewers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 8

min read
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 08, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Brewers (47-37) are -200 favorites vs the Pirates (34-49)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker (2-7), 4.28 ERA
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Ashby (1-6), 4.60 ERA
  • Watch the game on Apple TV+

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+170) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-200) on Friday, July 8, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Pirates vs Brewers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 34-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 37-47 ATS.

Pirates vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+1.5 -115O 8 -115+170
Brewers -1.5 -105U 8 -105-200

Pirates vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s matchup with 54.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Brewers vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.25 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.55 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+3.35 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Michael Perez has hit the Total Bases Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.60 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Michael Perez has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 40% ROI)

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+10.20 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+8.10 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Luis Urias has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 13 games at home (+5.75 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 56% ROI)

Brewers vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Christian Yelich 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Jace Peterson 0.5 +675 0.5 -2500
Jonathan Davis 0.5 +900 0.5 -10000
Kolten Wong 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600

Brewers vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Christian Yelich 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Jace Peterson 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Jonathan Davis 0.5 -125 0.5 -110
Kolten Wong 0.5 -160 0.5 +115

Brewers vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Christian Yelich 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Jace Peterson 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Jonathan Davis 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Kolten Wong 0.5 +210 0.5 -350

Brewers vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Ashby 6.5 +100 6.5 -145
JT Brubaker 4.5 -125 4.5 -115
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 21 of their last 39 away games (+6.60 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 74 games (+5.90 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 34 away games (+5.85 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.75 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+2.90 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 38 of their last 64 games (+13.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 64 games (+9.10 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 23 games (+4.20 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 21 games (+3.30 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.85 Units / 16% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 39-44 against the Run Line (-10.2 Units / -9.87% ROI).

  • 34-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.9 Units / -2.17% ROI
  • 35-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.85 Units / -11.91% ROI
  • 42-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.4 Units / 3.7% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 37-47 against the Run Line (-11.5 Units / -11.39% ROI).

  • 47-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.9 Units / -4.57% ROI
  • 42-37 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.3 Units / 1.39% ROI
  • 37-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.45 Units / -9.16% ROI

JT Brubaker has a strike rate of just 58% (223/385) in two strike counts this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — second Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 52% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (200/385) with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .467 (21-for-45) against JT Brubaker when he’s behind in the count this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .331 — sixth Percentile.

JT Brubaker has allowed an OBP of .340 (188 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .291 — sixth Percentile.

Aaron Ashby: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 67% (85/127) against Aaron Ashby this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (98/158) against Aaron Ashby this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 57% of Aaron Ashby’s pitches in the zone (300/524) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 67% — 0 Percentile.

Aaron Ashby has allowed at least one HR in each of his last five games dating back to May 30th — Jose Urquidy has the longest active streak at 9.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Pirates are just 78-20 (.796) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 3-5 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Pirates are just 3-36 (.077) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .109.

The Pirates are just 12-43 (.218) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Brewers are 7-3 (.700) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Brewers are 42-14 (.750) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Brewers are just 3-17 (.150) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.

The Brewers are 26-8 (.765) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

The Pirates are batting just .204 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .232.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .300 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

The Pirates are batting just .204 with two outs since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .233.

The Pirates are batting just .200 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .235.

The Brewers are batting just .227 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.

The Brewers are batting just .225 at home since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

The Brewers are batting just .320 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.

Pirates pitchers have walked 204 of 2,128 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 263 of 2,644 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,159 of 11,588 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 5.47 (365.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
  • Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Concussion, D7
  • Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
  • Dustin Renfroe (Brewers): Calf, D10
  • Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Back/Rib cage, Day-to-Day
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
  • Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Brewers vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.