- The Brewers (48-37) are -275 favorites vs the Pirates (34-50)
- Pirates starting pitcher: Zachary Thompson (3-6), 4.42 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Brandon Woodruff (7-3), 3.95 ERA
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+220) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-275) on Saturday, July 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).
The Pirates vs Brewers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 34-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 37-48 ATS.
Pirates vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 +105 | O 7.5 -110 | +220 |
| Brewers | -1.5 -125 | U 7.5 -110 | -275 |
Pirates vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s matchup with 61.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.25 Units / 56% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+3.35 Units / 56% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Runs Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+1.00 Units / 7% ROI)
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+9.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Luis Urias has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Luis Urias has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+5.85 Units / 24% ROI)
Brewers vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jace Peterson | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Brewers vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jace Peterson | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 -110 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
Brewers vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jace Peterson | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -375 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Woodruff | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -115 |
| Zach Thompson | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +100 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 40 away games (+7.60 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 75 games (+6.90 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 35 away games (+4.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+1.90 Units / 19% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 39 of their last 65 games (+14.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 65 games (+8.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+2.65 Units / 9% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 40-44 against the Run Line (-9.2 Units / -8.8% ROI).
- 34-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -3.28% ROI
- 35-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.9 Units / -12.91% ROI
- 43-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.4 Units / 4.73% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 37-48 against the Run Line (-12.5 Units / -12.26% ROI).
- 48-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.9 Units / -3.73% ROI
- 42-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.25 Units / 0.27% ROI
- 38-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.45 Units / -7.98% ROI
Zachary Thompson: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (12/102) against Zach Thompson with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Zach Thompson has a strike rate of just 59% (125/211) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 69% — first Percentile.
The average home run distance against Zach Thompson this season is 417.3 feet — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 398.5
Zach Thompson has allowed a slugging percentage of just .167 (6 Total Bases / 36 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .373 — 99th Percentile.
Brandon Woodruff: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .429 (21 GB hits out of 49 GBs) against Brandon Woodruff this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .227 — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a miss rate of 41% (98/239) against Brandon Woodruff this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .048 (2 GB hits out of 42 GBs) against Brandon Woodruff with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: .230 — 100th Percentile.
Brandon Woodruff has struck out 34% (156/464) of left-handed batters he faced since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 78-20 (.796) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 3-21 (.125) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Pirates are just 14-27 (.341) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .482.
The Pirates are just 45-107 (.296) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .465.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are 33-6 (.846) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Brewers are 43-14 (.754) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Brewers are 26-8 (.765) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The Brewers are just 3-17 (.150) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .285.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .204 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .232.
The Pirates are batting just .146 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .644 (4,509 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .708.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .295 (2,762 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Brewers are batting just .222 against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Brewers are batting just .227 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 205 of 2,136 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 916 of 9,396 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 66 of 737 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 66% of their games since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Concussion, D7
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
- Dustin Renfroe (Brewers): Calf, D10
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Back/Rib cage, Day-to-Day
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D60
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
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