Pirates vs Brewers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 9

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(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 09, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Brewers (48-37) are -275 favorites vs the Pirates (34-50)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Zachary Thompson (3-6), 4.42 ERA
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Brandon Woodruff (7-3), 3.95 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSWI

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+220) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-275) on Saturday, July 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).

The Pirates vs Brewers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 34-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 37-48 ATS.

Pirates vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+1.5 +105O 7.5 -110+220
Brewers -1.5 -125U 7.5 -110-275

Pirates vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s matchup with 61.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Brewers vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.25 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.55 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+3.35 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Runs Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+1.00 Units / 7% ROI)

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+9.15 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Luis Urias has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Luis Urias has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+5.85 Units / 24% ROI)

Brewers vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Christian Yelich 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Jace Peterson 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Kolten Wong 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Luis Urias 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000

Brewers vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Christian Yelich 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Jace Peterson 0.5 -130 0.5 -110
Kolten Wong 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Luis Urias 0.5 -175 0.5 +120

Brewers vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Christian Yelich 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Jace Peterson 0.5 +250 0.5 -375
Kolten Wong 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Luis Urias 0.5 +170 0.5 -250

Brewers vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Woodruff 7.5 -115 7.5 -115
Zach Thompson 3.5 -145 3.5 +100
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 40 away games (+7.60 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 75 games (+6.90 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.75 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 35 away games (+4.85 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+1.90 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 39 of their last 65 games (+14.10 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 65 games (+8.05 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.20 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.85 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+2.65 Units / 9% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 40-44 against the Run Line (-9.2 Units / -8.8% ROI).

  • 34-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -3.28% ROI
  • 35-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.9 Units / -12.91% ROI
  • 43-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.4 Units / 4.73% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 37-48 against the Run Line (-12.5 Units / -12.26% ROI).

  • 48-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.9 Units / -3.73% ROI
  • 42-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.25 Units / 0.27% ROI
  • 38-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.45 Units / -7.98% ROI

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (12/102) against Zach Thompson with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Zach Thompson has a strike rate of just 59% (125/211) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 69% — first Percentile.

The average home run distance against Zach Thompson this season is 417.3 feet — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 398.5

Zach Thompson has allowed a slugging percentage of just .167 (6 Total Bases / 36 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .373 — 99th Percentile.

Brandon Woodruff: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .429 (21 GB hits out of 49 GBs) against Brandon Woodruff this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .227 — 0 Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a miss rate of 41% (98/239) against Brandon Woodruff this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .048 (2 GB hits out of 42 GBs) against Brandon Woodruff with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: .230 — 100th Percentile.

Brandon Woodruff has struck out 34% (156/464) of left-handed batters he faced since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Pirates are just 78-20 (.796) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 3-21 (.125) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.

The Pirates are just 14-27 (.341) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .482.

The Pirates are just 45-107 (.296) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .465.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Brewers are 33-6 (.846) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.

The Brewers are 43-14 (.754) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Brewers are 26-8 (.765) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.

The Brewers are just 3-17 (.150) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .285.

The Pirates are batting just .204 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .232.

The Pirates are batting just .146 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .644 (4,509 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .708.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .295 (2,762 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.

Brewers hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

The Brewers are batting just .222 against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Brewers are batting just .227 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Pirates pitchers have walked 205 of 2,136 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 916 of 9,396 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 66 of 737 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 66% of their games since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Brewers vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
  • Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Concussion, D7
  • Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
  • Dustin Renfroe (Brewers): Calf, D10
  • Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Back/Rib cage, Day-to-Day
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.