- The Pirates are -105 favorites vs the Brewers
- Pirates starting pitcher: Richard Hill
- Brewers starting pitcher: Julio Teheran
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The Pittsburgh Pirates (-105) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-115) on Friday, June 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Pirates are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Pirates vs Brewers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 34-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 29-39 ATS.
Pirates vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 +100 | -105 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -120 | -115 |
Pirates vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 56.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Strikeouts Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 17 away games (+8.45 Units / 40% ROI)
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 19 away games (+8.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- Tucupita Marcano has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.35 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+12.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 31 of his last 47 games (+11.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 49 games (+9.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 37 games (+9.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 34 of his last 49 games (+8.80 Units / 11% ROI)
Brewers vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
Brewers vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Brewers vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Brewers vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rich Hill | 6.5 +145 | 6.5 -190 |
| Julio Teheran | 4.5 +130 | 4.5 -175 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 39 games (+14.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.95 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 30 away games (+4.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 64 games (+4.10 Units / 6% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 46 games (+13.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 46 games (+8.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 62 games (+8.30 Units / 12% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 33-34 against the Run Line (-8.25 Units / -9.32% ROI).
- 34-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.3 Units / 4.28% ROI
- 33-30 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.15 Units / 0.2% ROI
- 30-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.85 Units / -7.95% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 29-39 against the Run Line (-14.25 Units / -16.73% ROI).
- 34-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.25 Units / -6.06% ROI
- 28-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.15 Units / -17.46% ROI
- 37-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.15 Units / 8.27% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
14 of Rich Hill’s 37 breaking pitch strikeouts (38%) have been backdoor this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 13% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (70/220) against Rich Hill this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (382/862) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 97th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 49% of the time (587/1,203) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 97th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
55% of Julio Teheran’s strikeouts are looking — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (28/164) against Julio Teheran over the last 30 days (4 games) — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 53% (18/34) against Julio Teheran — tied for 10th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 90th Percentile.
Julio Teheran has walked 3 of 90 batters (3%) over the last 30 days (4 games) — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 96th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 1-26 (.037) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .146.
The Pirates are just 0-30 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Pirates are just 9-102 (.081) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Pirates are just 1-30 (.032) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .106.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are 5-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .781.
The Brewers are just 0-32 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Brewers are 24-4 (.857) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .784.
The Brewers are 23-13 (.639) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .298 (2,621 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Pirates are batting just .233 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Pirates are batting just .150 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .300 (4,366 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging just .223 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Brewers are batting just .221 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of just .297 (911 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .327.
The Brewers are batting just .227 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 824 of 8,801 batters (9%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 55% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 13 of 105 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have walked 26 of 190 batters (14%) over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 42 of 602 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Matthew Bush (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Wade Miley (Brewers): Lat Strain, D15
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Neck, D10
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Wrist, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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