- The Pirates are -120 favorites vs the Brewers
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller
- Brewers starting pitcher: Wade Miley
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Pittsburgh Pirates (-120) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (+100) on Saturday, June 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Pirates are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Pirates vs Brewers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 34-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 29-40 ATS.
Pirates vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | -1.5 +140 | O 8.5 -115 | -120 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -165 | U 8.5 -105 | +100 |
Pirates vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 18 away games (+13.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Strikeouts Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Tucupita Marcano has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- Josh Palacios has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 63% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.00 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 32 of his last 48 games (+12.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 50 games (+11.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 38 games (+10.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+9.80 Units / 12% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.60 Units / 36% ROI)
Brewers vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Brewers vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -105 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -250 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Brewers vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Brewers vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
| Wade Miley | 3.5 +135 | 3.5 -175 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 40 games (+15.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.95 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 31 away games (+3.50 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 65 games (+3.10 Units / 4% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 47 games (+11.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 63 games (+7.20 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games (+6.95 Units / 12% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 34-34 against the Run Line (-7.25 Units / -8.02% ROI).
- 34-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.3 Units / 2.94% ROI
- 34-30 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.15 Units / 1.53% ROI
- 30-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.95 Units / -9.3% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 29-40 against the Run Line (-15.25 Units / -17.69% ROI).
- 35-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.25 Units / -4.84% ROI
- 29-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.15 Units / -15.9% ROI
- 37-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.05 Units / 6.69% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has walked 6 of 27 left-handed batters (22%) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 51% (59/116) against Mitch Keller this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 84th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a strikeout rate of 49% (101 SO in 204 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 87th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed a slugging percentage of just .162 (6 Total Bases / 37 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .378 — 94th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of just 3% (3/94) against Wade Miley this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 16% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 13% (13/103) against Wade Miley this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 15% (21/136) against Wade Miley this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (46/288) against Wade Miley this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are 32-1 (.970) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .895.
The Pirates are just 7-14 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 33-115 (.223) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Pirates are 33-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are 5-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .779.
The Brewers are just 2-28 (.067) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Brewers are 7-3 (.700) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 23-13 (.639) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .173 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
The Pirates are batting just .225 on the road since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .298 (2,621 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against RHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .643 (672 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .746.
The Brewers are batting just .220 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Brewers are batting just .147 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of just .297 (917 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 831 of 8,837 batters (9%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 14 of 104 batters (14%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 58 of 599 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,437 of 14,977 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have walked 24 of 186 batters (13%) over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Brewers have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Brewers pitchers have 80 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 3rd fewest in MLB.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Matthew Bush (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Forearm, D15
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Wrist, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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