- The Brewers are -160 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+135) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-160) on Sunday, June 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Pirates vs Brewers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 34-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 30-40 ATS.
Pirates vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -145 | O 8.5 -105 | +135 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +120 | U 8.5 -115 | -160 |
Pirates vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 71.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 19 away games (+14.70 Units / 44% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.60 Units / 60% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 24 of his last 39 games (+9.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- Tucupita Marcano has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.35 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 32 of his last 49 games (+10.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+10.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 39 games (+9.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 49 games (+9.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+8.60 Units / 31% ROI)
Brewers vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Brewers vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -150 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +110 |
Brewers vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
Brewers vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Ortiz | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -135 |
| Freddy Peralta | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 41 games (+16.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.90 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 32 away games (+2.50 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 66 games (+1.95 Units / 3% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 48 games (+10.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 64 games (+8.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 48 games (+5.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.55 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 34-35 against the Run Line (-8.25 Units / -9.03% ROI).
- 34-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.15 Units / 1.45% ROI
- 34-31 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.1 Units / 0.13% ROI
- 31-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.95 Units / -7.84% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 30-40 against the Run Line (-14.25 Units / -16.22% ROI).
- 36-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.25 Units / -3.66% ROI
- 29-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.2 Units / -17.04% ROI
- 38-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.05 Units / 7.9% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Ortiz has allowed an OBP of .370 (54 PA’s) with two-strikes over the last 30 days (5 games) — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: .249 — third Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to May 28th — Aaron Nola has the longest active streak at 11.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 71% (12/17) against Luis Ortiz — tied for 2nd highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 42% — 99th Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has thrown low pitches 73% of the time (128/176) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 99th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .216 (8-for-37) against Freddy Peralta on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .345 — 98th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has allowed an OPS of 1.025 (61 PA’s) with two-strikes over the last 30 days (5 games) — highest among in MLB; League Avg: .520 — first Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has allowed an OPS of .641 (163 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .493 — 11th Percentile.
68% of Freddy Peralta’s fastball strikeouts are elevatedthis season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 54% — 82nd Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 4-112 (.034) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Pirates are just 0-33 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Pirates are 32-1 (.970) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .895.
The Pirates are 33-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are just 2-28 (.067) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .145.
The Brewers are just 0-32 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Brewers are 5-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .779.
The Brewers are 26-4 (.867) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .786.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .151 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Pirates are batting just .150 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Pirates are batting just .229 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Pirates are batting just .176 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .231.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .220 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Brewers are batting just .228 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Brewers hitters have 193 strikeouts in 676 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .647 (676 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .744.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 834 of 8,871 batters (9%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 14 of 103 batters (14%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 62% of their games at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have walked 44 of 620 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Brewers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 42% of their games at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Matthew Bush (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Forearm, D15
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Wrist, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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